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On Governance in Transition:
An Empirical International Perspective

Daniel Kaufmann, Brookings Institution
For Presentation and Discussion at special seminar
sponsored by the Central Bank of Tunisia,
Tunis, November 14th, 2011

Key Issues
• Economic Development and Growth: Not only
economic determinants matter, but also
Political and Institutional factors matter
• Specifically: importance of Governance,
preceding, during, and after transitions
• Governance can be measured -- power of Data :
Constructing Indices & Interpreting w/ Caution
• What does the data suggest on the Arab world?
• Some conclusions for discussion
2

Trend in Official GDP per capita: Tunisia and Egypt
Tunisia:

Egypt:

Source: “Egyptians', Tunisians' Wellbeing Plummets Despite GDP Gains.” By Jon Clifton and Lymari Morales. Gallup.com, Feb. 2011. 3
2005- 2010 GDP per capita from International Monetary Fund’s Economics Outlook database. Other figures from Gallup, Inc.

Trends in Official GDP per capita vs. Well Being (% of citizens report
“thriving” in Gallup polls)
Tunisia:

Egypt:

Source: “Egyptians', Tunisians' Wellbeing Plummets Despite GDP Gains.” By Jon Clifton and Lymari Morales. Gallup.com, Feb. 2011. 4
2005- 2010 GDP per capita from International Monetary Fund’s Economics Outlook database. Other figures from Gallup, Inc.

Satisfaction with government social services in Egypt and Tunisia

Source: Gallup Report (2010), “Egypt: The Arithmetic of Revolution.” Abu Dhabi Gallup Center. Gallup Report
(2011), “Tunisia: Analyzing the Dawn of the Arab Spring.” Abu Dhabi Gallup Center.

Unemployment rates in select Arab countries – various groups

Source: Jad Chaaban, (2010). "Job Creation in the Arab Economies: Navigating through Difficult Waters", Arab Human Development Report
Research Paper Series. United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Arab States; World Development Indicators, World
Bank; Key Indicators of the Labour Market, International Labour Organization.

The Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI):
Definition and Main Clusters
Governance: set of traditions and institutions by
which authority in a country is exercised – specifically:
• Political Cluster: Process by which those in authority
are selected and replaced
• Economic Cluster: Capacity of government to formulate
and implement policies and to provide public services
• Institutional Respect Cluster: Respect of citizens and
the state for the institutions that govern interactions
among them
7

WGI: The Six Indicators of Governance
• Political cluster: the process by which those in authority
are selected and replaced
1. VOICE AND DEMOCRATIC ACCOUNTABILITY
2. POLITICAL STABILITY & ABSENCE OF VIOLENCE/TERRORISM

• Economic cluster: the capacity of government to
implement policies and provide public services
3. GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS
4. REGULATORY QUALITY

• Institutional cluster, the respect for institutions
governing interactions among citizens & the state
5. RULE OF LAW
6. CONTROL OF CORRUPTION
8

Main Features of the WGI
• Data on six dimensions of governance covering 213 countries
over the period 1996-2010
• Synthesis of hundreds of underlying indicators taken from over
30 different organizations & data sources
• Aggregate and individual indicators interactively available at
www.govindicators.org, large database
• Unobserved Component Model (UCM): for aggregation
• Result of longstanding research project, featuring the
“Governance Matters” series, plus new analytical report, by D.
Kaufmann, A. Kraay & M. Mastruzzi: “Worldwide Governance
Indicators: Methodology & Analytical Issues”
• Transparency & precision about imprecision: full disclosure of
limitations of data: the WGI quantify this imprecision w/
“margins of error” (likely range of governance scores for each
country)
9

Individual sources for constructing the WGI
• Cross-Country Surveys of Firms: Global Competitiveness
Survey, World Competitiveness Yearbook, BEEPS
• Cross-Country Surveys of Individuals: Gallup World Poll,
Global Corruption Barometer, Latinobarometro,
Afrobarometer
• Expert Assessments from Commercial Risk Rating
Agencies: Global Insight, Political Risk Services,
Economist Intelligence Unit, IJET Travel, Asia Risk
Consultancy
• Expert Assessments from NGOs, Think Tanks: Reporters
Without Borders, Heritage Foundation, Freedom House,
Bertelsmann Foundation, Amnesty International, IREEP,
IREX, Global Integrity, Binghamton University,
International Budget Project
• Expert Assessments from Governments, Multilaterals: 10
World Bank CPIA, EBRD, AFDB, ADB, State Dept., IFAD

Control of Corruption Worldwide, WGI, end-2010
Good Corruption Control

Margin of
Error
[Russia] Control
of Corruption
Level

Source: “Worldwide Governance Indicators,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, October 2011 – www.govindicators.org; Dark red indicates countries in the bottom
th and
10th percenti8le rank; light red between 10th and 25th percentile rank; orange between 25 th and 50th; yellow between 50th and 75th; light green between 75th and 9011
th
th
Dark green between 90 and 100 percentile (exemplary governance)

Control of Corruption in the Arab World, 2010

Source: “WGI: A Summary of Data, Methodology and Analytical Issues,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, September 2010 –
www.govindicators.org.
90th-100th percentile
50th-75th percentile
10th-25th percentile
12
h-50th percentile
th-10th percentile
th
th
25
0
75 -90 percentile

Control of Corruption in the Arab World, 2000 & 2010 (top)

Source: “WGI: A Summary of Data, Methodology and Analytical Issues,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, September 2010 –
www.govindicators.org.
90th-100th percentile
50th-75th percentile
10th-25th percentile
13
h-50th percentile
th-10th percentile
th
th
25
0
75 -90 percentile

Voice & Accountability in the Arab World, 2010

Source: “WGI: A Summary of Data, Methodology and Analytical Issues,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, September 2010 –
www.govindicators.org.
90th-100th percentile
50th-75th percentile
10th-25th percentile
14
h-50th percentile
th-10th percentile
th
th
25
0
75 -90 percentile

Voice & Accountability in Arab World, 2000 & 2010 (top)

Source: “WGI: A Summary of Data, Methodology and Analytical Issues,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, September 2010 –
www.govindicators.org.
90th-100th percentile
50th-75th percentile
10th-25th percentile
15
h-50th percentile
th-10th percentile
th
th
25
0
75 -90 percentile

Worldwide Governance Indicators: Tunisia
(2000, 2005 & 2010)

Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators, by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, 2011– www.govindicators.org.

16

Governance Performance Groupings in MENA (average of Voice &
Accountability, Government Effectiveness and Control of Corruption , 2010)

Good Governance (percentile rank)

# Countries:4

# Countries:3

# Countries:8
# Countries:5
WGI
change:
-3.1

WGI
change:
1.9

WGI
change:
-4.7

WGI
change:
4.7

*Numbers inside columns represent change in percentile rank since 2000. The numbers on top of the columns represent the number of countries in
each sample
Relative Performers (3): Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Turkey (Range: 63.3 to 56.2)
Semi-performers (4): Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan (Range: 53.4 to 48.1)
Non-performers (8): Tunisia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, Lebanon, Djibouti, West Bank Gaza (Range: 44.1 to 26.8)
Failing (5): Syria, Iran, Yemen, Libya, Iraq (Range: 21.7 to 7.0)
Source: “WGI: A Summary of Data, Methodology and Analytical Issues,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, September 2011 –
www.govindicators.org

The Ibrahim Index of African Governance
• Governance seen as the delivery of good and services to
citizens, capturing all aspects of what a citizen has the
right to expect from his or her state.
• It can be summarised by four over-arching categories (made up of
constituent sub-categories):
– Safety & Rule of Law (Rule of Law, Accountability, Personal
Safety, National Security)
– Participation & Human Rights (Participation, Rights, Gender)
– Sustainable Economic Opportunity (Public Management,
Business Environment, Infrastructure, Rural Sector)
– Human Development (Welfare, Education, Health)

2011 Ibrahim Index Data Providers
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

AfDB
BF
CDD Ghana
CIRI
EIU
FH
HER-WSJ
IDMC
IFAD
IGME
IMF
IREEP
ITU
OECD
OHCHR
PTS
RSF
UCDP
UNAIDS
UNHCR
USDS
WB
WHO

African Development Bank
Bertelsmann Foundation
Center for Democratic Development – Ghana
Cingranelli-Richards
Economist Intelligence Unit
Freedom House
The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
International Fund for Agricultural Development
Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation
International Monetary Fund
Institut de Recherche Empirique en Economie Politique
International Telecommunication Union
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights
Political Terror Scale
Reporters sans Frontières
Uppsala University, Department of Peace and Conflict Research - Uppsala Conflict Data Programme
Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS
Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
U.S. Department of State - Office to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The World Bank
World Health Organisation

2011 Ibrahim Index Structure

2011 Ibrahim Scores (2010)
Rank
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53

Participation Sustainable
Safety & Rule & Human
Economic
Country
Composite
of Law
Rights
Opportunity
Togo
45.6
56.7
42.0
36.0
Liberia
45.4
46.9
54.0
34.0
Burundi
45.1
46.0
50.2
40.3
Cameroon
45.0
45.6
34.2
47.5
Niger
44.2
50.1
41.6
44.6
Congo
42.4
43.2
37.8
40.5
Nigeria
41.1
45.9
33.9
41.1
Angola
40.8
39.2
42.7
41.8
Guinea
37.8
43.3
33.3
30.4
Guinea-Bissau
37.2
40.2
34.7
33.4
Equatorial
Guinea
36.5
44.9
16.7
35.8
Côte d'Ivoire
36.3
31.4
30.3
38.8
Eritrea
34.8
36.0
20.2
29.5
Sudan
33.1
21.0
22.1
40.0
CAR
32.6
28.6
34.4
35.8
DRC
32.4
29.8
33.0
28.9
Zimbabwe
30.9
28.2
26.9
24.5
Chad
30.6
35.8
24.4
33.0
Somalia
7.9
4.8
12.9
3.6
Average
50.4
53.0
45.2
47.4

Source: The Ibrahim Index of African Governance, Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2011.

Human
Development
47.7
46.7
44.1
52.8
40.4
48.1
43.6
39.4
44.1
40.5
48.8
44.8
53.6
49.2
31.4
37.8
44.2
29.0
10.1
56.2

21

2011 Ibrahim Scores (2010)
Rank Country
18 Algeria

Participation
Safety & Rule & Human
Composite
of Law
Rights
55.3
53.8
38.1

Sustainable
Economic
Opportunity
52.1

Human
Development
77.4

19 Burkina Faso
20 Uganda

55.1
55.0

59.3
57.8

56.1
50.9

58.6
52.5

46.5
58.8

21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

Mozambique
Mali
Kenya
Gambia
Rwanda
Swaziland
Gabon
Libya
Djibouti

54.6
53.6
52.6
51.8
51.7
51.4
50.7
49.9
48.7

61.3
62.2
48.0
46.5
48.7
61.5
58.5
41.3
56.0

58.4
55.9
53.0
44.5
39.4
27.7
39.1
19.3
33.9

50.9
46.9
50.0
52.1
56.9
49.8
41.5
57.1
47.1

47.9
49.6
59.5
64.1
61.7
66.4
63.8
82.1
57.9

30
31
32
33
34

Sierra Leone
Comoros
Mauritania
Madagascar
Ethiopia

48.2
47.4
47.3
47.1
45.8

58.4
54.2
47.1
44.3
45.4

53.4
50.6
47.3
43.6
34.1

43.0
29.3
47.9
50.1
53.8

37.9
55.6
46.8
50.3
49.9
22

Source: The Ibrahim Index of African Governance, Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2011.

2011 Ibrahim Scores (2010 data)
Rank Country
1 Mauritius
2 Cape Verde
3 Botswana
4 Seychelles

Participation
Safety & Rule of & Human
Composite
Law
Rights
82.5
88.9
75.3
79.0
86.5
78.1
76.1
86.9
67.7
73.5
77.9
67.1

Sustainable
Economic
Opportunity
78.9
68.0
67.9
62.9

Human
Development
86.8
83.3
81.9
85.9

5
6
7
8
9
10
11

South Africa
Namibia
Ghana
Lesotho
Tunisia
Egypt
Benin

70.6
69.7
66.0
62.8
61.7
60.7
59.9

69.1
78.5
71.9
69.1
57.8
62.8
66.3

72.4
65.8
69.1
66.4
33.8
33.9
64.7

63.5
62.6
53.4
54.6
66.9
69.8
52.4

77.3
72.0
69.6
61.2
88.3
76.2
56.2

12
13
14
15
16
17

São Tomé and
Príncipe
Tanzania
Morocco
Senegal
Zambia
Malawi

58.4
58.1
57.8
57.5
57.0
56.5

64.9
60.4
62.3
58.8
62.2
64.7

62.9
60.1
34.7
59.2
54.1
59.0

37.9
57.6
63.6
53.1
50.7
48.3

68.0
54.2
70.7
58.8
61.0
54.2
23

Source: The Ibrahim Index of African Governance, Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2011.

Tunisia -- Ranks & Scores on each subcomponent:
2011 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (2010 data)
Component & Sub-Component
COMPOSITE IIAG RANK & SCORE

Rank / 53
9

Regional rank / 6
1

Score / 100
61.7

SAFETY AND RULE OF LAW
RULE OF LAW
ACCOUNTABILITY/CORRUPTION
PERSONAL SAFETY
NATIONAL SECURITY

24
27
14
21
23

3
3
3
2
3

57.8
47.7
48.6
50.0
84.9

PARTICIPATION AND HUMAN RIGHTS
PARTICIPATION
RIGHTS
GENDER

42
44
47
10

5
4
5
2

33.8
17.4
20.7
63.3

SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
PUBLIC MANAGEMENT
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE
RURAL SECTOR

5
3
13
4
7

2
2
3
2
2

66.9
70.6
61.9
66.6
68.3

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
WELFARE
EDUCATION
HEALTH

1
2
2
4

1
1
1
2

88.3
83.2
87.0
94.7

Does Governance Matter?

25

The 300% Development Dividend From Improving Governance &
Controlling Corruption
$30,000

$3,000

$300

High Corruption

Medium Corruption

Low Corruption

Data Source for calculations: KK 2004. Y-axis measures predicted GDP per capita on the basis of Instrumental Variable (IV) results for
26each of
the 3 categories. Estimations based on various authors’ studies, including Kaufmann and Kraay.

Global Competitiveness (GCI) vs. Control of Corruption (WGI)
High

Low

Sources: Global Competitiveness Measure from World Economic Forum, 2011 Global Competitiveness Survey and Rule of Law from
Kaufmann, Kraay & Mastruzzi, “Governance Matters Series,” 2011– www.govindicators.org.

High

Budgetary Deficits and Corruption in Industrialized
Countries
Budget
Surplus

4

r = .79

FIN
DNK

EIU Budget Balance,
2006-2009

2

Budget
Deficit

SWE
NZL
CHE
SGP
CAN AUS

0
0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

BEL

-2
-4

JPN

ITA

PRT

-6
-8

ESP
IRL

FRA

2.0NLD

DEU AUT

2.5

3.0

USA
GBR

GRC

WGI Control of Corruption, 2005

Graph from: D. Kaufmann, ‘Corruption and Budget Deficits in Industrialized Countries: Heresy in the Eurozone and Beyond’, forthcoming
(2010), Brookings Working Paper Series. Sources of Data for this graph: Control of Corruption, 2008 from the Worldwide Governance
Indicators (WGI): Kaufmann, Kraay and Mastruzzi, “Governance Matters VIII” (2009). Higher value means better Corruption Control. Budget
Balance: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), average for budget balance for 2006-2009. A positive (negative) value for budget balance depicts
a budgetary surplus (deficit). Chart shows sample of 21 advanced economies

Governance in Foreign Aid

29

Evolution of Development Assistance vs. Voice & Democratic
Accountability in MENA (exc. Iraq), 2000-2009

Note: Iraq was excluded because it represents a special case in development assistance given the current situation in the country. Iraq received the following amounts of
ODA from all donors between 2006-2008 – $9.7 bn (52% of which came from the US); $9,7 bn (40% of which came from the US); and $9.8 bn (28% of which came from the
US);. Source: Kaufmann D., A. Kraay, M. Mastruzzi (2010), The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues , September 2010
http://www.govindicators.org); OECD DAC Database

Concluding: Issues for Discussion
1. Politics, Institutions, Governance Matter for Economic
Outcomes, and they can be measured (with caution)
2. Moving from Autocratic Regimes into Transition does not
guarantee good governance -- various paths are possible
3. Democratic Institutions, corruption & capture evolve. Risks
4. Lessons may apply from other transitions, w/ country adaptation

5. International Community: Lessons from ‘turning a blind eye’
6. Expectations: rising living standards. Yet economic downturn:
share the burden first; thereafter sharing in the growth. Jobs.
7. Youth, Jobs & Quality Education (incl. Science & Math)
8. Smart Role of the State: Regulatory vs. Redistributive vs. Producer

9. Transparency-led Reforms (including Diagnostics, Data)

Which path forward for the Arab transitions?

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank; Polity IV Annual Time-Series 1800-2010, Integrated Network for Societal Conflict
Research (INSCR)


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