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Equities Sales Trading Commentary

Technical Analysis
Weekly Comment
Michael Riesner

Marc Müller

michael.riesner@ubs.com
+41-44-239 1676

marc.mueller@ubs.com
+41-44-239 1789

Global
11/03/2014
h

Still Risk of a Minor Pullback … Watch China!!


US Trading: From a cyclical aspect we have been looking for a minor pullback into deeper March before moving
higher into Q2. With last week’s extension, the February rally lasts longer than favored but this does not change
the short-term technical setup. The US market (along with recent outperformers, materials, technology, DRG,
biotech) is overbought; we have various tactical divergences in our indicator work and the CBOE put/call ratio is
back at contrarian levels. Although the break of the late December high at 1850 is bullish medium-term and in
line with our underlying H1 bullish bias, short-term we are sticking to our recent call and see the risk of a minor
pullback into later March before starting the next tactical bull leg into Q2.



In our last weekly comment we said that as long as the SPX trades above 1825 we can see the market
overshooting towards 1860 to 1885. With 1883 the SPX has hit our second overshooting target. In our fast
momentum indicators we have a multi-divergence forming and in this context we see the SPX vulnerable for a
pullback. 1850 is a key support and a break of this level would imply more weakness towards 1815 to worst case
1795. Into April/May we continue to see new highs and the SPX moving towards our 1920/1970 target zone.



US Strategy: On track with our cyclical model we have seen a significant correction from our projected late
December top into early February. The February 5th reaction low at 1737 represents a new medium-term pivotal
level for the SPX and as long as 1737 holds the trend in the US market remains bullish. From a cyclical aspect,
last week’s break of 1850 gives us the ultimate confirmation that the SPX remains bullish biased into minimum
late Q2 (May/June), which is our next significant cyclical projection for a potential major top in equities. Albeit
short-term overbought, on the sector basis we continue to favor late cyclical themes outperforming.



European Trading: The selectivity in Europe is growing. The FTSE MIB, Portugal, and Ireland continue to
outperform, whereas the IBEX, core Europe and particularly the DAX are underperforming. Against the strong
US market and inline with our cyclical model most of Europe is factually in our anticipated March pullback
scenario and on the back of the German underperformance, a too strong EUR, and following our US call, we
expect more near-term weakness in Europe. In the Stoxx-600/Euro Stoxx we have a potential small double top
forming and a break of 3053 would call for a re-test of the early February low at 2950 in the Euro Stoxx-50 into
deeper/later March, before starting the next tactical up leg into Q2.



Inter Market Analysis: The picture on the commodity side is getting more selective. On the one hand we see
continued strength in soft commodities (which remain bullish biased into summer); gold is in consolidation mode
but showing relative strength on the back of the geopolitical tensions, whereas in economy sensitive commodities
we have increasing pressure, which is tracking the breakdown in the Chinese stock market. Copper has broken its
January low, which is bearish and on the energy front crude oil is challenging its key support at $100. A break of
$100 would be short-term bearish and imply the risk of a sell-off towards $95 and worst case $92, which from a
cross-asset class perspective would be tactically bearish risk.



Strategically, we have been bullish EUR since the July low last year, and after the corrective January setback we
see more EUR strength. Last week the EUR has broken its December top and the pair is testing its 2008
downtrend, which is a key level. On a short-term basis the EUR looks a bit toppish and we expect a pullback into
later March but with increasing trend momentum and as long as trading above its early February low at 1.3474
the EUR remains bullish biased into summer. A break of 1.39 would imply a move towards 1.41.60 and 1.44.



Asian Corner: In our last weekly comment (February 25th) we highlighted the deteriorating technical picture in
the SSEC and we said the likelihood of seeing a negative surprise in China is increasing. With yesterday’s sell-off
the SSEC is testing its pivotal January low and the CSI-300 has broken its December 2012 low. So far we haven’t
seen any spikes in volatility/volume, which implies the risk of seeing more weakness in China. Sooner or later the
weakness in China will translate into increasing nervousness/volatility in the Western markets!!

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UBS 1

Weekly Comment

US Equity Market Update:
Chart 1. ) S&P-500 Daily Chart

Short-term Toppish!
In our last weekly comment (February 25th) we said that
as long as the SPX trades above 1825 we could still see a
final overshooting towards best case 1885 but after the
aggressive February rally and following our cyclical
model we have been nonetheless looking for a minor
pullback from late February into deeper March before
resuming its underlying bull trend into Q2.
Strategically, and from a cyclical aspect the break of
the late December high is clearly bullish and it gives us
the ultimate confirmation that the US market remains
bullish biased into summer which, according to our 2014
strategy, was and still is our preferred timing for a more
important market top.

Chart 2. ) S&P-500 Daily Chart

Tactically, we argued that given the overbought
market stance and the exhaustive moves in the
outperformer sectors (DRG, SOX, materials, biotech)
it would be likely to see a 3% to 4% pullback in the
SPX into deeper March before we could see the real
and sustainable breakout towards the 1920/1970
region into Q2. With last week’s extension towards 1883
the SPX has more or less hit our overshooting target, but
fact is that from timing perspective the February rally
lasted longer than initially thought. Does this negate our
scenario of a short-term pullback into March?
The picture in the US is unchanged. The US market is
overbought with our daily trend work reaching
extremes, in our fast momentum work as well as other
key indicators we have non-confirmations forming
(page 3.), the rally in the outperformer sectors has an
exhaustive character, and our short-term CBOE
put/call ratio is back at contrarian levels.

Chart 3. ) Nasdaq Composite Daily Chart

Conclusion: Despite last week’s breakout and its
medium-term bullish implication we are sticking to our
recent tactical call and continue to expect a minor
pullback of around 3% to 4% into March before starting
the next bull leg into Q2. Given the point that our
anticipated trading top comes in a few days later than
favored implies that our projected deeper March
trading low could shift into later March. From a price
perspective a re-break below 1850 would suggest a
pullback towards 1815 to worst case 1795, which we
would see as another tactical buying opportunity.
Medium-term we maintain our underlying bullish bias
into later Q2. Despite the divergences in our structural
indicators, a potential near-term top in the SPX or the
Nasdaq would be just another high momentum top and no
bull market ends in a high momentum top - apart from the
fact that so far we have absolutely no evidence of a bigger
distributive pattern forming.

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UBS 2

Weekly Comment

US Equity Market Update:

Divergences in Key Indicators …
Last week’s breakout in the SPX caused a couple of non-confirmations in our indicator work, and on the sentiment side the
5-day CBOE put/call ratio is back at contrarian levels. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator is a key indicator in our
momentum work and a divergence is usually a high probability setup for tactical setbacks/bottoms. The current divergence
is an indication that last week’s breakout in the SPX could be hard to hold/defend in a following pullback and it is the
main reason why we said in our last weekly comment that even if we were to see a breakout we would not see it short-term
as sustainable. More important tactically as well as for the larger picture is the big divergence forming in the VIX index
versus the SPX, and the fact that the new breakout in the SPX has not been confirmed by market breadth, where we
witness just a weak expansion in the NYSE new highs. Over the last few months we have been highlighting the gradually
deteriorating breadth in the US, which results in a pattern where since last May’s top in market breadth, every bigger
tactical top in H2 as well as last week’s breakout in the SPX has been accompanied by a lower peak in the new 52-week
highs. In the bigger picture this is usually a leading indicator of a more important top!
Conclusion: The divergences in our structural indicators we see as an indication that the US market is on the way
into a bigger top later this year but tactically it is still too early to get bearish since in our price indicators we still do
not have the classic non-confirmations forming let alone that we have no bigger distributive pattern forming yet. Shortterm the risk is to see a minor pullback but tactically we should see minimum one further rally leg into later Q2
before the market would really be at risk of moving into a more important top. In this context we maintain our
medium-term bullish bias on the SPX and the US market and our Q2 SPX target is unchanged at 1970.
Chart 4. ) S&P-500 with NYSE McClellan Oscillator

Chart 6. ) S&P-500 with VIX Index

Chart 5. ) S&P-500 with NYSE New 52-Week Highs

Chart 7. ) S&P-500 with 5-Day CBOE Put/Call Ratio

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UBS 3

Weekly Comment

US Equity Market Update:
Chart 8. ) US Healthcare (DRG) Daily Chart

Outperformer Exhaustive!
In line with our recent sector calls we saw a rally off from
the early February lows and continued outperformance in
biotech, healthcare, technology and late cyclical sectors
such as materials and energy stocks. However, after the
recent rally more or less all these sectors are extremely
overbought, and after predominantly vertical moves we
see all these sectors vulnerable for a pullback, so we
would take profits at current levels.

Chart 9. ) US Semiconductors (SOX) Daily Chart

Chart 10. ) S&P Materials Daily Chart

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With regards to the overall market we said in our late
February weekly report that if the market is not able to
start a new rotation back into the recent underperformer
sectors such as financials, transport and/or staples it
would be difficult for the SPX to hold its high price
levels. It is interesting to see that last week we saw some
relative strength in fact coming back to banks, brokers
and even transport, which is re-testing its January reaction
high. Although we do not favor a real and hard rotation
back into early cyclical financials and transport, last
week’s relative strength in banks, broker stocks and
the bounce in transport and staples is at least a point
that clearly supports the US market and it is one
reason why a pullback into later March could be again
relatively shallow before we expect the market to start its
next up leg, where we expect cyclical themes and in
particular the late cyclical materials and energy complex,
as well as the hype sectors such as healthcare and biotech
to continue to move higher into Q2.
However, one point is in our view also more and more
clear. Healthcare and biotech are record high
overbought (similar to what we saw last year in May
in utilities and staples) and this is a clear indication
that these sectors are on the way into a major top this
year followed by a big and longer lasting correction. In
our 2014 strategy we said that in the late stages of a bull
market it is usually the darlings of the market that tend to
go vertical and if so, then we know that the market is not
far from a major top. From a sentiment standpoint it is
very likely that exactly these hype sectors will outperform
into the ultimate market top before starting a significant
bear cycle and in this context we think it is still too early
to call a major top in the hype sectors. So despite the risk
of a near-term pull back we expect more upside into Q2.

UBS 4

Weekly Comment

US Equity Market Update:
Chart 11. ) US Banks (BKX) Daily Chart

Last week’s strength in banks and transport is surprising,
since the BKX is factually moving back into its broken
2011 bull trend, which kind of invalidates this trend line
at least from its significance and the DJT is re-testing its
January top.
Short-term we also see financials and transport
overbought and vulnerable for a pullback, but given the
recent healthy momentum it is likely to see new highs in
banks, broker stocks, and the DJT into Q2.

Chart 12. ) Dow Jones Transport (DJT) Daily Chart

Chart 13. ) US Consumer Staples Daily Chart

In consumer staples we saw a nice rally from the early
February lows but all in all the sector continues to trade in
a wide trading range where we do not believe in any
immediate breakout near-term. On a short-term basis the
sector is increasingly overbought, which points to a pull
back into later March. We would be a seller at current
levels.

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UBS 5

Weekly Comment

Inter-Market Update:

Copper Break Down … Gold/Silver Buy The Dips!!
Strategically it was a key call of our 2014 strategy to expect a broader and longer lasting bear market rally in the
commodity space from an early Q1 major bottom into minimum summer/best case later this year as a classic late cycle
outperformance theme in the current risk bull cycle. Over the last few weeks we have seen significant rallies across the
board. The metals and the energy complex were leading and over the last few weeks we have also seen major bottom
breakouts in the soft commodities and grains, which completes the underlying bullish picture in commodities.
Tactically, we have highlighted in our last weekly comment (February 25th) the increasingly overbought stance in most
commodities. In natural gas we got the anticipated significant and sharp set back. Gold and silver are on track with our
favoured short-term pull back/consolidation into March, where gold is very stable and outperforms on the back of the
geopolitical tensions. The underlying set up in the metals remains bullish since gold (as well as gold mines) are
moving just sideways and the set back in silver (chart 18.) is just corrective and unfolding in a near perfect a-b-c
pattern, which is near to complete. A break of $21.50 would be short-term bullish silver, and a new breakout in
gold above $1354 would be trend continuation bullish and imply a next target at $1433.
Otherwise we see increasing selectivity in the commodity space. Soft commodities are overbought and should pull back
but the trend into summer we expect to remain bullish, whereas in economy sensitive commodities we have increasing
pressure, tracking the breakdown in the Chinese stock market. Copper has broken its pivotal January low, which is
bearish cyclically/pattern wise and implies more nearChart 14. ) Gold Daily Chart
term weakness into later March, and this also implies
that a test of the major 2012 summer bottom at 3.00 is
underway, which is an obvious and strategically
important key level in copper! A break of this level
would be super bearish copper with significant
consequences on the cross asset side since such a
breakdown can actually be only justified by an
escalation of the situation in China. Just to be clear, this
is definitely not our favoured scenario or at least
tactically it would be in our view too early but from a
risk management perspective the level of 3.00 in copper
is something we have to keep on the radar screen!!

Chart 15. ) Copper Daily Chart

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Chart 16. ) Copper Daily Chart

UBS 6

Weekly Comment

Inter-Market Update:
Chart 17. ) Crude Oil Daily Chart

Crude Oil:
Keep an eye on oil!! On the energy front crude oil is
challenging its key support at $100 and with a fresh
short signal in our daily trend work we expect more
near-term weakness in oil. A break of $100 would be
short-term negative and imply the risk of a sell-off
towards $95 and worst case $92, which from a cross-asset
class perspective would be tactically bearish risk.

Silver:
Chart 18. ) Silver Daily Chart

Chart 19. ) HUI Index Daily Chart

With the high momentum February breakout silver has
completed a major bottom and the rally towards $22 has
also broken its 200-day moving average, which is bullish
medium-term. On a very short-term basis silver was
overbought and on track with our cyclical model we have
seen a pull back from our projected late February minor
top into March. From a price perspective the pull back
was significant but from a pattern standpoint pretty
text book like, since it has been developing in a classic
a-b-c corrective shape and the pull back has confirmed
the major double bottom as well as the 200-day
moving average. After the recent pull back silver trades
in the time window of our March low projection so any
near-term weakness and/or a break of 21.50 would be
short-term bullish and imply a next up leg to be
underway. Generally, a break of the late February high
would be rather bullish and imply a next strategic target at
$25. Buy the dips!!
Gold Bugs Index:
Keep an eye on the gold bugs index!! Tracking the
consolidation on the metals side, the HUI is in
consolidation mode and trading sideway, which is a
very healthy behavior/pattern. Basically, as long as we
don’t see a break below 230 the underlying price pattern
in the HUI remains bullish. More importantly, the shortterm ADX indicator (as a trend momentum indicator)
has reached lower extreme levels, which mirrors
contracting volatility and implies that a next breakout
and subsequent trend move shouldn’t be too far away.
Given the constructive set up in the metals the bias for the
HUI remains bullish as well. We would buy the dips
and/or a break of 250, which would imply a next target at
260 and 270.

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UBS 7

Weekly Comment

Inter-Market Update:

EURUSD Testing its 2008 Trend!!
Strategically, we have been bullish EUR since the July low last year, and according to our 2014 strategy we continue to
expect the EUR moving into a major top later this year, which on the other hand should bring us a major US dollar bottom
as the basis for a 2-year bull market into 2015/2016. Our cyclical roadmap is unchanged. Apart from any short-term
tactical swings we continue to favour this major EUR top in later summer, so that any near-term pull backs should be still
a buying opportunity.
Tactically, we highlighted another breakout situation in the EUR in our last update (February 18th weekly report) and in
this context we also highlighted the very low readings in the ADX indicator as a leading indicator for a new trend move
and momentum breakout. On track with our cyclical model, and after the corrective January setback, we have seen more
EUR strength and last week the EUR has broken its December top at 1.3840, which is the lower end of the 1.3840/1.39
resistance zone. More importantly, with 1.39 the EUR is also testing its 2008 downtrend, which is a major breakout level,
and which we think will have also have some relevance on the sentiment side. Keep in mind, from a sentiment perspective
we continue to have a very large camp in the market, which is struggling with the current EUR strength. Implicitly – a
major EUR top later this year implies also a major sentiment top and despite the underlying bull trend we think we are still
far away from any bullish euphoria towards the EUR.
Conclusion: On a short-term basis the EUR looks a bit toppish, as we have a bigger divergence forming in our daily
trend work and in this context we wouldn’t be surprised to see a short-term pullback into later March before starting its
next bounce leg. However, as long as trading above its
Chart 20. ) EURUSD Daily Chart
early February low at 1.3474 the underlying bias for the
EUR remains bullish and together with the increasing
trend momentum it is in our view just a matter of time
to see the real and sustainable breakout attempt in the
EUR. A break of 1.39 would imply a move towards
1.41.60 to 1.44 and the latter level was and remains our
target projection for a potential major EUR top in later
summer.
Again, in our 2014 strategy we said that a too strong
EUR into summer could be a trigger for Europe to start
underperforming, which would be completely against
one of the biggest consensus themes this year and in this
case the one or other market in Europe could start
earlier with a distribution phase as the SPX in the US.
Currently we see Europe again weakening versus the US
and the key level is the December relative low!!
Chart 21. ) EURUSD Weekly Chart

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Chart 22. ) STOXX Europe-600 versus S&P-500

UBS 8

Weekly Comment

Asian Corner Update:

China Is Testing Key Support … Breakout in India!!
The selectivity in Asia and Emerging Market area is increasing, since we have markets such as the KOSPI, Straits Times
and the NIFTY, where we have seen significant rallies, whereas Russia is breaking down, Brazil is hitting a new reaction
low, and China is testing key support levels. Generally, since the August low in the Emerging Market complex our key
long call was and still is India. Last year we have highlighted the NIFTY trading just a fraction below its all time high,
which was a complete misfit to the underlying sentiment in this market. This picture has in our view still not changed.
Last week the NIFTY has broken out to a new all time high, and it does not produce any real headlines, which
remains bullish!! On a short-term basis the outperformer markets in Asia are overbought and in the in Straits Times in
Singapore we have a small momentum divergence forming, which is short-term toppish and implies the risk of a near-term
pull back but all in all we would still use any weakness to buy/add for another move higher into summer.
The problem candidate in Asia remains China. After the recent sell off we said in our last weekly report that a negative
surprise in China is increasingly likely and with yesterday’s sell off the SSEC is challenging its pivotal January low at
1984, which is just a fraction above its major support zone of 1950 to 1920. In this context it is important to highlight that
the CSI-300 index is already breaking its pivotal support zone, which is bearish. So far we haven’t seen any volatility
and/or volume spikes, which means it is too early to call a low or anticipate a near-term reversal and in this context we
have to take into account more weakness in China so that also the SSEC could break its 1950/1920 support zone, which
would call for initially 1850 as a next support. More weakness in China is latently bearish risk and sooner or later this will
trigger at least some nervousness and volatility also in the Western markets.
Chart 23. ) Shanghai Composite Daily Chart

Chart 25. ) Straits Time Index Daily Chart

Chart 24. ) CSI-300 Daily Chart

Chart 26. ) NIFTY Index Weekly Chart

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UBS 9

Weekly Comment

European Equity Market Update:

Europe Starts Underperforming!!
The selectivity in Europe is growing and all in all we see increasing relative weakness developing versus the US market
(see chart 22.) Theo outstanding markets in Europe are the FTSE MIB, Portugal, and Ireland, which continue to
outperform, whereas the IBEX, core Europe and particularly the DAX are underperforming. Against the strong US market
and inline with our cyclical model most of Europe is factually in our anticipated March pullback scenario and on the back
of the German underperformance, a too strong EUR, and following our US call, we expect more near-term weakness in
Europe. In the Stoxx-600/Euro Stoxx we have a potential small double top forming and a break of 3053 would call for a
re-test of the early February low at 2950 in the Euro Stoxx-50 into deeper/later March, before starting the next tactical up
leg into Q2.

Chart 27. ) Euro Stoxx 50 Daily Chart

Euro Stoxx 50:
Inline with our last call, the big resistance at 3170 remains
a technical cap but the index has not really started our
expected pullback campaign into deeper March. Recent
trading action and the increasing volatility has the
character of an ongoing short-term top building process.
However, last week’s intraday low at 3053 defines a new
short-term support and a tactical short-trigger. With our
daily trend work rolling over, we continue to expect
corrective themes to dominate into deeper/later March.

Chart 28. ) STOXX Europe 600 Daily Chart

Given the current significant underperformance versus the
S&P-500, tactical upside surprises and further re-tests
towards 3170 are less likely. On the downside, a violation
of 3053 would be short-term negative with the round
number at 3000 representing the next psychological
support, whereas the February low at 2944 defines the
most significant price support.
STOXX Europe 600:
Thanks to the outperforming small- and mid-cap camp,
the broader European market has hit a marginal new
reaction high in late February, which however has not
been confirmed by many large cap indices. The lack of
follow-through and last week’s volatile trading is about to
form a potential double top of a minor degree. The focus
this week is on last week’s low at 330 and a break would
be tactically negative with immediate pullback risk
towards the rising 200-day moving average, which is
currently coming in shy below 320. The structural key
support defined by the early February low at 315 is
currently not at risk.

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UBS 10

Weekly Comment

European Equity Market Update:
Chart 29. ) FTSE-100 Daily Chart

FTSE-100:
After reaching the major resistance at 6875/6950 the
leading miners and healthcare stocks were overbought
and in line with our recent call we see the market pulling
back, which factually means that the major medium-term
trading range remains fully intact.
Into later March the current pullback campaign should
find support at around/slightly below the 200-day moving
average, which has proved to provide a basis for tactical
turning points in the recent past.

Chart 30.) DAX-30 Daily Chart

DAX-30:
On the back of the development in Russia, the German
market is losing significant ground versus the broader
European market, and on Friday the DAX/Stoxx-600
spread chart has hit a multi-month low. In absolute terms,
the index finished last week at its intra-week low and
below 9358, the tactical focus in the late March timeframe
will shift towards 9130, where the 2011 trend support is
coming in. The last reaction low at 9071, which
represents a pivotal support for us, is currently not at risk.
In our tactical roadmap, we favor the DAX finding
support above 9071 later this month.

Chart 31.) Swiss Market Index Daily Chart

Swiss Market Index:
As expected, the SMI produced its momentum divergence
in late February, which turned out to be the starting point
for the current pullback phase. Minor supports are defined
by the last minor low at 8278 and the neckline of the late
January bottom at 8250. If the most recent relative and
absolute weakness of the healthcare sector continues into
deeper March, the price risk would be a re-test of the
61.8% retracement of the December/January rally leg at
8066, which coincides with the 200-day moving average.

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UBS 11

Weekly Comment

STOXX Europe 600 Index Sector Overview:

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UBS 12

Weekly Comment

Weekly Technical Indicators: (Source: Pinnacle Data, Datastream) Charts: Metastock

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UBS 13

Weekly Comment

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NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION INTO THE U.S.

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