Risks and Vulnerabilities Mexico Dependence on USA Economies .pdf


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Risks and Vulnerabilities Mexico: Dependence on USA
Sets Mexico Apart from the other MINT Economies
Opinion | 29 May 2014

Media Eghbal

One of the big challenges facing the Mexican

Head of Countries'
Analysis

economy according to our Risks and
Vulnerabilities Country Briefing is its
dependence on the USA, in terms of trade,
foreign direct investment (FDI) and

remittance inflows from the large Mexican diaspora. In 2013, Mexican exports to the
USA accounted for 77.6% of total exports. Mexico holds huge potential as Latin
America’s second largest economy (after Brazil) and home to nearly 20% of the Latin
American population. Furthermore, it was the 10th largest crude oil producer in the
world in 2013.
However, reliance on the USA sets Mexico apart from the other rising emerging market
stars forming the MINT group (Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey). As a result, the Mexican
economy had the slowest real GDP growth following the global financial crisis of 20082009 amongst the MINT countries (partly owing to the sluggish recovery in the USA)
with real GDP of just 3.5% on average per year in 2010-2013. In comparison, the
equivalent figure in Nigeria was 6.6%. The government is seeking to diversify its trade
partners, especially China, and by working with South American countries through the
formation of the Pacific Alliance trade bloc in 2012. Further diversification is needed to
make Mexico less vulnerable to US economic shocks, which will heighten its
competiveness on a global scale, while the focus on reforms within Mexico should
strengthen its domestic economy.
Export Share to USA and China of MINT Economies: 2013

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/OECD/International Monetary

Page 1 of 2

Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics (IFS), Direction of Trade Statistics
US economic reliance
Mexico’s real GDP growth slowed down to 1.1% in 2013 from an average of 4.3%
registered during the period 2009-2012, owing to decelerating economic growth in the
USA, on which the Mexican economy is heavily reliant;
Œ

Mexican exports are highly concentrated on the US market, which received 77.6%
of the country’s total exports in 2013, making Mexico’s external sector highly
vulnerable to variations in US consumer demand, and reinforcing the country’s
dependence on the US economic cycle;
Œ

The USA is also the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country
and an important source of remittances for the Mexican economy;
Œ

The USA is also Mexico’s largest source of imports, representing 50.0% of the
country’s total imports in 2013. China is emerging as an increasingly important point of
supply, with its share of imports into Mexico rising to 15.4% in 2013 from 1.6% in
2000;
Œ

In 2013, Mexico approved legislation for a fiscal reform (as part of the initiative
“Pacto por Mexico”), which seeks to increase the country’s tax collection levels (at
19.0% of total GDP in 2013, including oil transfers), while also limiting growth of
current government spending. The approval of a Law on Energy Reform in 2013 seeks
to address this situation by allowing private participation in the Mexican energy sector.
Œ

Mexican-US relations provide some unique advantages
On the other hand, Mexican membership of NAFTA and its geographical proximity to
the North American market offer distinct advantages. This together with relatively low
wages have helped Mexico become an important manufacturing hub in the region as
the trend of “nearshoring” or relocating production bases closer to home has taken off.
The government wants to widen its export base to reduce reliance on US demand and
according to the Ministry of Economy, the country has free trade agreements covering
over 40 countries. Euromonitor statistics reveal that exports to China increased by an
average of 23.6% per year in US$ terms in 2008-2013 compared to 4.8% in the USA.
It is looking towards South America with The Pacific Alliance group launched in 2012
consisting of Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Peru aimed at promoting free trade, helping
with the movement of people and linking stock exchanges. The government should
continue to seek new trade partners to reduce its reliance on the USA as an export
destination and make it less vulnerable to shocks in US demand.
For any further enquiries, please contact Media Eghbal, Country Insight Manager at
Euromonitor International at media.eghbal@euromonitor.com

© Euromonitor International 2015

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