Teranet E 151112 .pdf
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November 12, 2015
House prices edged up 0.1% in
October
m/m growth:
Latest: +0.1% prior month: +0.6%
y/y growth:
Latest: +5.6% prior month: +5.6%
FACTS: The Teranet–National Bank National Composite
House Price IndexTM rose 0.1% in October, a tenth
increase in a row. That rise was about equal to the 17year October average. Prices were up in five of the 11
metropolitan markets surveyed: 1.9% in Winnipeg, 0.6%
in Vancouver, 0.3% in Toronto and Victoria and 0.2% in
Edmonton. Elsewhere, prices declined: −0.2% in Quebec
City, −0.3% in Montreal and Hamilton, −0.6% in OttawaGatineau, −0.8% in Calgary and −1.7% in Halifax. The
composite index was up 5.6% from a year earlier,
unchanged from September. Among component indexes,
the 12-month gain was well above the national average
in Vancouver (9.8%) and in Toronto and Hamilton
(9.3%). It was closer to the average in Victoria (6.4%) but
well below it in Edmonton (1.4%). Prices were stable in
Winnipeg and Ottawa-Gatineau, and declined in
Montreal (−0.6%), Calgary (-1.0%), Halifax (−1.1%) and
Quebec City (−3.2%). (See charts next page.)
OPINION: The regional dichotomy in the Canadian
housing market is more obvious than ever. The 12-month
composite price increase, the largest since May 2012
(top chart), was driven by only four markets (Toronto,
Hamilton, Vancouver and Victoria) where home resale
market conditions are known to be rather tight. And
though the composite Index was at an all-time high in
October, this was true, or almost true, for only those four
markets among the component indexes (middle table). In
the other markets, prices have been below historical
peaks for some time. The October 12-month price
increase was the most narrowly based in six years, with
prices up in only five markets (bottom chart).
Marc Pinsonneault
Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™
12-month % change
June 2005 = 100
16
180
Index (R)
14
12
170
160
12-month change (L)
10
150
8
140
6
130
4
120
2
110
0
100
-2
90
-4
80
-6
70
-8
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
60
NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index.
Perspective on house price changes
Victoria
Vancouver
Calgary
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Hamilton
Toronto
Ottawa-Gatineau
Montreal
Quebec City
Halifax
Composite Index
Price change
since peak
0.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-3.0%
-0.4%
-0.3%
0.0%
-1.5%
-1.8%
-4.4%
-2.5%
0.0%
Month
of peak
2015-10
2015-10
2014-10
2007-09
2014-09
2015-09
2015-10
2014-08
2014-07
2015-05
2013-06
2015-10
Months
since peak
0
0
12
97
13
1
0
14
15
5
28
0
NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index
Lowest breadth in 12-month price increase in 6 years
Number of regions with 12-month price gain
Number of regions
10
8
6
4
2
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index.
TERANET – NATIONAL BANK
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
Toronto (34.6%)
Montreal (14.0%)
12-month % change
June 2005 = 100
18
16
12-month change (L)
14
Index (R)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
14
12
10
8
June 2005 = 100
18
16
14
12
10
12-month change (L)
Index (R)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Quebec City (2.1%)
12-month % change
Victoria (3.2%)
12-month % change
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
12-month % change
24
20
16
12
12month
change
(L)
180
160
10
130
120
4
110
12-month change (L)
Index (R)
8
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
170
180
45
160
40
170
150
35
130
120
4
190
50
100
5
0
90
0
90
0
70
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
60
-2
-4
Halifax (1.5%)
12-month % change
12
12-month change (L)
12
170
10
150
6
4
110
100
90
80
-5
70
-10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
60
6
130
4
110
0
100
90
Index (R)
-4
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Index (R)
2
0
60
-4
-6
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Weights in the National Composite Index are in parentheses
12-month % change
180
20
170
18
160
16
150
14
140
12
130
10
120
8
110
6
100
4
90
-2
80
70
20
16
12
8
12month
change
(L)
Index (R)
4
0
-4
-8
-12
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
60
12-month % change
June 2005 = 100
Index (R)
45
160
35
150
30
140
25
20
15
Index (R)
12-month change (L)
0
70
-2
60
-4
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
180
170
40
130
12-month change (L)
120
110
10
100
5
90
0
80
-5
70
-10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
June 2005 = 100
2
80
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
190
50
Winnipeg (2.2%)
June 2005 = 100
12-month change (L)
8
140
120
2
12-month % change
180
160
8
-6
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
120
Hamilton (3.7%)
June 2005 = 100
10
-2
70
130
15
10
80
140
20
110
160
150
25
2
80
Index (R)
30
100
Index (R)
12-month change (L)
June 2005 = 100
24
Edmonton (5.2%)
June 2005 = 100
12-month % change
2
-4
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
180
140
6
Index (R)
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
12-month % change
Calgary (8.3%)
June 2005 = 100
14
12
140
6
12-month % change
170
150
-2
12-month
change (L)
Ottawa–Gatineau (5.7%)
June 2005 = 100
Vancouver (19.5 %)
June 2005 = 100
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Weights in the National Composite Index are in parentheses
NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index
2
60
TERANET – NATIONAL BANK
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY
Montreal Office
514-879-2529
Toronto Office
416-869-8598
Stéfane Marion
Marc Pinsonneault
Warren Lovely
Chief Economist & Strategist
Senior Economist
MD, Public Sector Research and Strategy
stefane.marion@nbc.ca
marc.pinsonneault@nbc.ca
warren.lovely@nbc.ca
Paul-André Pinsonnault
Matthieu Arseneau
Senior Fixed Income Economist
Senior Economist
paulandre.pinsonnault@nbc.ca
matthieu.arseneau@nbc.ca
Krishen Rangasamy
Angelo Katsoras
Senior Economist
Geopolitical Associate Analyst
krishen.rangasamy@nbc.ca
angelo.katsoras@nbc.ca
General: National Bank Financial Markets is a business undertaken by National Bank Financial Inc. (“NBF”), an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank
of Canada, and a division of National Bank of Canada. This research has been produced by NBF. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian
stock exchanges. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete.
The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the
securities mentioned herein. Canadian Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make
further inquiry related to this report or effect any transaction, Canadian residents should contact their NBF Investment advisor.
U.S. Residents: With respect to the distribution of this report in the United States, National Bank of Canada Financial Inc. (NBCFI) is regulated by the Financial
Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). This report has been prepared in whole or in part by,
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inquiry
related
to
this
report,
United
States
residents
should
contact
their
NBCFI
registered
representative.
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