Teranet E 151112 .pdf

November 12, 2015

House prices edged up 0.1% in
October
m/m growth:
Latest: +0.1% prior month: +0.6%
y/y growth:
Latest: +5.6% prior month: +5.6%

FACTS: The Teranet–National Bank National Composite
House Price IndexTM rose 0.1% in October, a tenth
increase in a row. That rise was about equal to the 17year October average. Prices were up in five of the 11
metropolitan markets surveyed: 1.9% in Winnipeg, 0.6%
in Vancouver, 0.3% in Toronto and Victoria and 0.2% in
Edmonton. Elsewhere, prices declined: −0.2% in Quebec
City, −0.3% in Montreal and Hamilton, −0.6% in OttawaGatineau, −0.8% in Calgary and −1.7% in Halifax. The
composite index was up 5.6% from a year earlier,
unchanged from September. Among component indexes,
the 12-month gain was well above the national average
in Vancouver (9.8%) and in Toronto and Hamilton
(9.3%). It was closer to the average in Victoria (6.4%) but
well below it in Edmonton (1.4%). Prices were stable in
Winnipeg and Ottawa-Gatineau, and declined in
Montreal (−0.6%), Calgary (-1.0%), Halifax (−1.1%) and
Quebec City (−3.2%). (See charts next page.)
OPINION: The regional dichotomy in the Canadian
housing market is more obvious than ever. The 12-month
composite price increase, the largest since May 2012
(top chart), was driven by only four markets (Toronto,
Hamilton, Vancouver and Victoria) where home resale
market conditions are known to be rather tight. And
though the composite Index was at an all-time high in
October, this was true, or almost true, for only those four
markets among the component indexes (middle table). In
the other markets, prices have been below historical
peaks for some time. The October 12-month price
increase was the most narrowly based in six years, with
prices up in only five markets (bottom chart).
Marc Pinsonneault

Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™
12-month % change

June 2005 = 100

16

180

Index (R)

14
12

170
160

12-month change (L)

10

150

8

140

6

130

4

120

2

110

0

100

-2

90

-4

80

-6

70

-8

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

60

NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index.

Perspective on house price changes

Victoria
Vancouver
Calgary
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Hamilton
Toronto
Ottawa-Gatineau
Montreal
Quebec City
Halifax
Composite Index

Price change
since peak
0.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-3.0%
-0.4%
-0.3%
0.0%
-1.5%
-1.8%
-4.4%
-2.5%
0.0%

Month
of peak
2015-10
2015-10
2014-10
2007-09
2014-09
2015-09
2015-10
2014-08
2014-07
2015-05
2013-06
2015-10

Months
since peak
0
0
12
97
13
1
0
14
15
5
28
0

NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index

Lowest breadth in 12-month price increase in 6 years
Number of regions with 12-month price gain
Number of regions
10
8
6
4
2
0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index.

TERANET – NATIONAL BANK
HOUSE PRICE INDEX

Toronto (34.6%)

Montreal (14.0%)
12-month % change

June 2005 = 100

18
16

12-month change (L)

14

Index (R)

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50

14
12
10
8

June 2005 = 100

18
16
14
12
10

12-month change (L)

Index (R)

8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8

Quebec City (2.1%)
12-month % change

Victoria (3.2%)

12-month % change

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50

12-month % change
24
20
16
12

12month
change
(L)

180
160

10

130
120

4

110

12-month change (L)

Index (R)

8

8
4
0
-4
-8
-12

170

180

45

160

40

170

150

35

130
120

4

190
50

100

5

0

90

0

90

0

70
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

60

-2
-4

Halifax (1.5%)
12-month % change
12

12-month change (L)

12

170

10

150

6
4

110
100
90
80

-5

70

-10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

60

6

130

4

110

0

100
90

Index (R)

-4
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Index (R)

2
0

60

-4
-6

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Weights in the National Composite Index are in parentheses

12-month % change

180

20

170

18

160

16

150

14

140

12

130

10

120

8

110

6

100

4

90

-2

80
70

20
16
12
8

12month
change
(L)

Index (R)

4
0
-4
-8
-12

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

60

12-month % change

June 2005 = 100
Index (R)

45

160

35

150

30

140

25
20
15

Index (R)
12-month change (L)

0

70

-2

60

-4

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

180
170

40

130

12-month change (L)

120
110

10

100

5

90

0

80

-5

70

-10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

June 2005 = 100

2

80

210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60

190
50

Winnipeg (2.2%)
June 2005 = 100

12-month change (L)

8

140
120

2

12-month % change

180
160

8

-6

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

120

Hamilton (3.7%)
June 2005 = 100

10

-2

70

130

15
10

80

140

20

110

160
150

25

2

80

Index (R)

30

100

Index (R)

12-month change (L)

June 2005 = 100

24

Edmonton (5.2%)
June 2005 = 100

12-month % change

2

-4

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

180

140

6

Index (R)

210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60

12-month % change

Calgary (8.3%)

June 2005 = 100

14
12

140

6

12-month % change

170
150

-2

12-month
change (L)

Ottawa–Gatineau (5.7%)
June 2005 = 100

Vancouver (19.5 %)
June 2005 = 100

200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60

Weights in the National Composite Index are in parentheses

NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index

2

60

TERANET – NATIONAL BANK
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY
Montreal Office
514-879-2529

Toronto Office
416-869-8598

Stéfane Marion

Marc Pinsonneault

Warren Lovely

Chief Economist & Strategist

Senior Economist

MD, Public Sector Research and Strategy

stefane.marion@nbc.ca

marc.pinsonneault@nbc.ca

warren.lovely@nbc.ca

Paul-André Pinsonnault

Matthieu Arseneau

Senior Fixed Income Economist

Senior Economist

paulandre.pinsonnault@nbc.ca

matthieu.arseneau@nbc.ca

Krishen Rangasamy

Angelo Katsoras

Senior Economist

Geopolitical Associate Analyst

krishen.rangasamy@nbc.ca

angelo.katsoras@nbc.ca

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