Teranet E 151112 .pdf



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November 12, 2015

House prices edged up 0.1% in
October
m/m growth:
Latest: +0.1% prior month: +0.6%
y/y growth:
Latest: +5.6% prior month: +5.6%

FACTS: The Teranet–National Bank National Composite
House Price IndexTM rose 0.1% in October, a tenth
increase in a row. That rise was about equal to the 17year October average. Prices were up in five of the 11
metropolitan markets surveyed: 1.9% in Winnipeg, 0.6%
in Vancouver, 0.3% in Toronto and Victoria and 0.2% in
Edmonton. Elsewhere, prices declined: −0.2% in Quebec
City, −0.3% in Montreal and Hamilton, −0.6% in OttawaGatineau, −0.8% in Calgary and −1.7% in Halifax. The
composite index was up 5.6% from a year earlier,
unchanged from September. Among component indexes,
the 12-month gain was well above the national average
in Vancouver (9.8%) and in Toronto and Hamilton
(9.3%). It was closer to the average in Victoria (6.4%) but
well below it in Edmonton (1.4%). Prices were stable in
Winnipeg and Ottawa-Gatineau, and declined in
Montreal (−0.6%), Calgary (-1.0%), Halifax (−1.1%) and
Quebec City (−3.2%). (See charts next page.)
OPINION: The regional dichotomy in the Canadian
housing market is more obvious than ever. The 12-month
composite price increase, the largest since May 2012
(top chart), was driven by only four markets (Toronto,
Hamilton, Vancouver and Victoria) where home resale
market conditions are known to be rather tight. And
though the composite Index was at an all-time high in
October, this was true, or almost true, for only those four
markets among the component indexes (middle table). In
the other markets, prices have been below historical
peaks for some time. The October 12-month price
increase was the most narrowly based in six years, with
prices up in only five markets (bottom chart).
Marc Pinsonneault

Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™
12-month % change

June 2005 = 100

16

180

Index (R)

14
12

170
160

12-month change (L)

10

150

8

140

6

130

4

120

2

110

0

100

-2

90

-4

80

-6

70

-8

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

60

NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index.

Perspective on house price changes

Victoria
Vancouver
Calgary
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Hamilton
Toronto
Ottawa-Gatineau
Montreal
Quebec City
Halifax
Composite Index

Price change
since peak
0.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-3.0%
-0.4%
-0.3%
0.0%
-1.5%
-1.8%
-4.4%
-2.5%
0.0%

Month
of peak
2015-10
2015-10
2014-10
2007-09
2014-09
2015-09
2015-10
2014-08
2014-07
2015-05
2013-06
2015-10

Months
since peak
0
0
12
97
13
1
0
14
15
5
28
0

NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index

Lowest breadth in 12-month price increase in 6 years
Number of regions with 12-month price gain
Number of regions
10
8
6
4
2
0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index.

TERANET – NATIONAL BANK
HOUSE PRICE INDEX

Toronto (34.6%)

Montreal (14.0%)
12-month % change

June 2005 = 100

18
16

12-month change (L)

14

Index (R)

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50

14
12
10
8

June 2005 = 100

18
16
14
12
10

12-month change (L)

Index (R)

8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8

Quebec City (2.1%)
12-month % change

Victoria (3.2%)

12-month % change

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50

12-month % change
24
20
16
12

12month
change
(L)

180
160

10

130
120

4

110

12-month change (L)

Index (R)

8

8
4
0
-4
-8
-12

170

180

45

160

40

170

150

35

130
120

4

190
50

100

5

0

90

0

90

0

70
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

60

-2
-4

Halifax (1.5%)
12-month % change
12

12-month change (L)

12

170

10

150

6
4

110
100
90
80

-5

70

-10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

60

6

130

4

110

0

100
90

Index (R)

-4
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Index (R)

2
0

60

-4
-6

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Weights in the National Composite Index are in parentheses

12-month % change

180

20

170

18

160

16

150

14

140

12

130

10

120

8

110

6

100

4

90

-2

80
70

20
16
12
8

12month
change
(L)

Index (R)

4
0
-4
-8
-12

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

60

12-month % change

June 2005 = 100
Index (R)

45

160

35

150

30

140

25
20
15

Index (R)
12-month change (L)

0

70

-2

60

-4

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

180
170

40

130

12-month change (L)

120
110

10

100

5

90

0

80

-5

70

-10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

June 2005 = 100

2

80

210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60

190
50

Winnipeg (2.2%)
June 2005 = 100

12-month change (L)

8

140
120

2

12-month % change

180
160

8

-6

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

120

Hamilton (3.7%)
June 2005 = 100

10

-2

70

130

15
10

80

140

20

110

160
150

25

2

80

Index (R)

30

100

Index (R)

12-month change (L)

June 2005 = 100

24

Edmonton (5.2%)
June 2005 = 100

12-month % change

2

-4

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

180

140

6

Index (R)

210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60

12-month % change

Calgary (8.3%)

June 2005 = 100

14
12

140

6

12-month % change

170
150

-2

12-month
change (L)

Ottawa–Gatineau (5.7%)
June 2005 = 100

Vancouver (19.5 %)
June 2005 = 100

200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60

Weights in the National Composite Index are in parentheses

NBF Economics and Strategy, Teranet-National Bank House Price Index

2

60

TERANET – NATIONAL BANK
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY
Montreal Office
514-879-2529

Toronto Office
416-869-8598

Stéfane Marion

Marc Pinsonneault

Warren Lovely

Chief Economist & Strategist

Senior Economist

MD, Public Sector Research and Strategy

stefane.marion@nbc.ca

marc.pinsonneault@nbc.ca

warren.lovely@nbc.ca

Paul-André Pinsonnault

Matthieu Arseneau

Senior Fixed Income Economist

Senior Economist

paulandre.pinsonnault@nbc.ca

matthieu.arseneau@nbc.ca

Krishen Rangasamy

Angelo Katsoras

Senior Economist

Geopolitical Associate Analyst

krishen.rangasamy@nbc.ca

angelo.katsoras@nbc.ca

General: National Bank Financial Markets is a business undertaken by National Bank Financial Inc. (“NBF”), an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank
of Canada, and a division of National Bank of Canada.  This research has been produced by NBF. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian
stock exchanges.  The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete.
The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the
securities mentioned herein.  Canadian Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make
further inquiry related to this report or effect any transaction, Canadian residents should contact their NBF Investment advisor.
 U.S. Residents: With respect to the distribution of this report in the United States, National Bank of Canada Financial Inc. (NBCFI) is regulated by the Financial
Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). This report has been prepared in whole or in part by,
research analysts employed by non-US affiliates of NBCFI that are not registered as broker/dealers in the US. These non-US research analysts are not registered
as associated persons of NBCFI and are not licensed or qualified as research analysts with FINRA or any other US regulatory authority and, accordingly, may not
be subject (among other things) to FINRA restrictions regarding communications by a research analyst with the subject company, public appearances by research
analysts and trading securities held a research analyst account. All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analysts’ personal
views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this research report. The analyst responsible for the production of this report certifies that the views expressed herein reflect
his or her accurate personal and technical judgment at the moment of publication. Because the views of analysts may differ, members of the National Bank Financial
Group may have or may in the future issue reports that are inconsistent with this report, or that reach conclusions different from those in this report. To make further
inquiry
related
to
this
report,
United
States
residents
should
contact
their
NBCFI
registered
representative.
 UK Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, National Bank Financial Inc. has approved the contents (including, where necessary,
for the purposes of Section 21(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000). National Bank Financial Inc. and/or its parent and/or any companies within or
affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long or short positions
in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant securities or related
financial instruments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted as investment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can
go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to retail customers.
This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein
nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This information is only for distribution to
Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority. National Bank Financial
Inc. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and has its registered office at 71 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 4HD. National Bank Financial
Inc. is not authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority to accept deposits in the United Kingdom.  Copyright: This report
may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions
contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of National Bank Financial.


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