201512 Office Market Update 2015 Q4 COLLIERS .pdf



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The Greater Paris Region
office market
Q4 2015

Accelerating success.

outlook

Does the end-of-year increase in 2015 bode
well for 2016?
>F
rance appears to have found its way back to growth with a marked
improvement in GDP over 2015 (+1.1%) compared with 2014 (+0.2%)
and growth forecasts predicting further improvement over 2016 (+1.5%).
However, most economists agree that this recovery will be a slow process
with some considerable complications that could weigh on French growth:
the international economic climate and the ongoing difficulties seen in the
employment market.

60% for the last 10 years). Conversely, there was a marked reduction in the
number of major transactions in spite of an increase over the last quarter.
>R
eal estate activity in 2015 saw a strong concentration in the traditional
business submarkets. Paris was the focus of a good number of transactions
by small and medium companies and the Western Crescent secured some
major transactions due to its ample supply of large buildings.
> The Greater Paris Region office market should remain active in 2016.
Improvements in a number of indicators, such as corporate investment
were seen towards the end of 2015 and these should gain pace over 2016.
The good level seen in the business climate index, which is above its longperiod average, also bodes well for an increase in business confidence
which could lead to real estate projects being taken forward.

> I n terms of real estate, 2015 posted an unexpected level of volume at the
end of the year following a particularly flat H1 2015. For the year as a whole,
office take-up stood at 2.2 million sq m meaning that levels remained
virtually stable compared with 2014 (+1%).
>2
015 saw a return of transactions to the small and medium space segments
which accounted for almost 70% of take-up (compared with an average of

2

The Greater Paris Region office market | Q4 2015

> Even though the outlook for activity appears to be better for 2016, the
configuration of the real estate market remains similar to 2015: rental
values should remain broadly stable and incentives will continue to be
an adjustment tool used in the marketplace. Some geographic areas and
space segments, particularly in the capital, could see some increases in
values, or at least a reduction in the level of incentives offered, as supply
becomes increasingly scarce. This tension between supply and demand
could lead to a shift of transactions in the small and medium space
segments in Paris towards submarkets in the Inner Suburbs where supply
levels are higher.

economic climate

Encouraging signs for 2016
Change in GDP in France and the Greater Paris Region (%)

Growth expectations improve
>T
here was a 1.1% increase in French growth over 2015, a marked improvement
compared with 2014: +0.2%. Economic recovery should continue into 2016,
with growth forecast at around 1.5%.
>T
his recovery will depend heavily on the international economic climate
which remains unclear. Growth forecasts for the majority of developed
countries have in fact been revised down and the slowdown in Chinese
economic activity continues.

Improvement seen in a number of economic indicators
>T
he business climate increased to 102 points in January 2016 compared with
94 points a year earlier. Since the summer, this indicator has risen above its longperiod average (100) after having been below the average for the last 4 years.
>T
he financial position of companies improved over 2015 as Governmental
incentive schemes (CICE and the Responsibility Pact) have allowed
corporate margin rates to recover; levels are now back over the 30% barrier.
This improvement, combined with low borrowing rates due to the extension
of the ECB’s quantitative easing policy, bodes well for an increase in
investment levels which remained negative in 2015 (-0.3%) but could reach
1.5% in 2016.
>T
he unemployment rate is still the thorn in the French economy’s side
with further increases seen over Q3 2015 taking levels to 10.6% (most recent
publicly available data). However, in the Greater Paris Region, the number
of jobs in the commercial sector increased by 0.4% over 2015.

Ile-de-France

France

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 (f)

2016 (f)

2017 (f)

2018 (f)

Source: Oxford Economics - f: forecasts

Change in investments in France (%)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0,0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 (f)

2016 (f)

2017 (f)

2018 (f)

Source : Oxford Economics - f: forecasts

3

The Greater Paris Region office market | Q4 2015

the office market in the greater paris region

An active end to the year
Change in take-up (thousands sq m)

Fourth quarter to the rescue
>A
gainst all odds, 2015 drew to a close with 2.2 million sq m of take-up, with
a very slight 1% increase compared to volumes seen in 2014.
>T
his recovery was due to activity seen over Q4 2015 when, following three
consecutive quarters of negative growth, over 709,000 sq m in transactions
was recorded. Comparable levels of take-up have not been seen for a Q4
period since before the crisis.
>T
he overall take-up for the year remains below the 10-year average (2.3 million
sq m) but the gap has been narrowed compared with volumes recorded in
recent years.

3,000

1st quarter

2nd quarter

3rt quarter

4th quarter

2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2005

2006 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Renewed activity seen in the small and medium space segments
>2
015 was the comeback year for the small and medium space segments.
Transactions for spaces under 5,000 sq m accounted for almost 1.5 million sq
m, which is their best performance since before the 2008 crisis.
>T
here are two possible explanations for this: on the one hand, the
improvement seen in the economic climate has enabled companies to
move forward with real estate projects that had previously been on hold; on
the other hand, growth in a number of sectors, primarily digital and new
technologies, boosted demand for office space.
> The volume of major transactions fell by 16%, with a marked decrease in the
over 20,000 sq m segment (-34%). It is however worth noting that the good
results seen in Q4 2015 were partly due to an increase in activity in the major
space segment towards the end of the year.

4

The Greater Paris Region office market | Q4 2015

2014

2015

Source: ImmoStat

Distribution of take-up by space segment (thousand sq m)
< 5,000 m²

5,000 - 10,000 m²

10,000 - 20,000 m²

> 20,000 m²

3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

2005 2006

2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: Colliers International France based on ImmoStat figures

the office market in the greater paris region

Strong activity returns to traditional office submarkets
Paris and the Western Crescent were the main beneficiaries
>W
ith 950,000 sq m of take-up in 2015, Paris easily topped the chart of the most
sought-after locations for corporates. The capital therefore secured 43% of takeup volume in the Greater Paris Region and posted a 15% year-on-year increase.
>T
he Western Crescent came in second place (excluding La Défense) with 25% of
transactions by volume and a 14% increase.
> I n the rest of the Inner Suburbs, volumes were limited as corporates opted for
the traditional office districts with the notable exception of La Défense which,
after posting a recovery in 2014, fell once again below 150,000 sq m of take-up.

Distribution of take-up (thousands sq m)
2013

2014

500
400
300
200
100
0

Paris
CBD

Southern
Paris

Small and medium spaces in Paris, large spaces in the Western Crescent
>G
ood activity in the small and medium space segments made a strong
contribution to the capital’s performance, which attracted almost half of
all transactions for spaces under 5,000 sq m in the Greater Paris Region; in
Paris, this space segment posted a 25% year-on-year increase. However, major
transactions in Paris posted a 10% decrease.

2015

600

North
Eastern
Paris

La Défense

Western
Crescent

Inner
Northern
Suburb

Inner
Eastern
Suburb 

Inner
Southern
Suburb 

Boucle
Nord 

2de
Suburb

Source : ImmoStat

Distribution of 2015 take-up by geographic area
and space segment (thousands sq m)
< 1,000 m²

1,000 - 5,000 m²

> 5,000 m²

600
500

>T
here was good transactional activity for spaces over 5,000 sq m in the Western
Crescent with 19 transactions (26 including La Défense), accounting for 52% of
take-up in the area. The towns of Boulogne-Billancourt and Issy-les-Moulineaux
proved to be particularly attractive with 8 major transactions including 3 for
spaces over 30,000 sq m.

400
300
200
100
0
Paris

5

The Greater Paris Region office market | Q4 2015

se
Paris
rd  
Paris


rb  
cent
éfen
urb
CBD outhern
ern
le No
ubur
ubur
e ub
Cres
Subu
La D
East
S
rn S
Bouc
rn S
ern
2d S
tern
h
t
r
uthe
aste
orth
Wes
o
No
E
N
S
r
r
r
Inne
Inne
Inne
Source : ImmoStat

the office market in the greater paris region

High level of stability in the distribution of supply
Supply fell to only 3.9 million sq m
> At the end of 2015, immediate supply once again fell below the 4 million sq m
threshold to 3.9 million sq m representing a 3% year-on-year decrease.
> Changes in supply vary depending on the geographic area. The sharpest falls
were seen in Paris Centre West (-17%), in La Défense (-11%) and in the Southern
Loop (-10%) while other submarkets posted increases in supply: Paris South
(+11%), Inner Southern Suburbs (+7%).
> The share of new or refurbished space in immediate supply has been stable
for the last 3 years at 22%. In some areas this share was much higher than the
regional average, in La Défense (39%) and Paris South (29%) and much lower in
others, Inner Eastern Suburbs (12%) and Paris Centre West (13%).

Change in immediate supply (thousands sq m)
Second-hand premises

5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

> Paris still has one of the lowest vacancy rates. However, some marked
disparities have appeared in the districts of Southern Paris: in the 12th and 13th
districts, the vacancy rate is only 2.5%, whereas in the 14th and 15th districts
levels have soared to 8.3% following a number of major completions in 2015.
> Rates in the Inner Suburbs broadly stand at over 10% and at between 6.5%
in the East to 11.6% in the Western Crescent. The rate for the Inner Southern
Suburbs increased to 11.3% as new buildings that were completed in the last
few years remain vacant.

2005 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2012

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: ImmoStat

Vacancy rates in the Greater Paris Region (%)

Locational disparities persist
> Year on year, the average vacancy rate for the Greater Paris Region fell from
7.7% to 7.4%.

New or refurbished premises

16

Q4 2014

Q4 2015

14

Market over supply

12
10
8

Fluid market

6
4

Tense market

2
0
Paris

La Défense

Western
Crescent

Inner
Northern
Suburb  

Inner
Eastern
Suburb  

Inner
Southern
Suburb

Boucle
Nord

2de Suburb

Source: Colliers International France, according to ImmoStat and ORIE

6

The Greater Paris Region office market | Q4 2015

the office market in the greater paris region

Higher level of speculative developments in 2015
Immediate and future supply >5,000 sq m (thousands sq m)

Increase in developments underway over last 12 months ...
>C
onfirmed supply of large, new or refurbished developments (>5,000 sq m)
stood at 1.5 million sq m at the end of 2015. This supply comprises 666,000
sq m of completed space and 825,000 sq m under development. The level
of completed developments may have seen a very slight decrease (-4%), but
developments underway (and not leased) posted a significant increase (+37%).
>L
ikely supply, which includes buildings that have applied for or been awarded
building permits, stands at 2.5 million sq m. The share of developments having
secured building permits also saw a marked year-on-year increase.

new and refurbished or renovated buildings with environmental certification
Delivered

1 500

> In the rest of the suburbs, confirmed supply remains limited and there are
very few speculative developments underway.

7

The Greater Paris Region office market | Q4 2015

Building permit requested

900
600
300
0
Immédiate

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Source: Colliers International France

Geographic distribution of immediate and future supply
>5,000 sq m (thousands sq m)

... concentrated in traditional business districts

> In the suburbs, there has been an increase in the number of developments
underway in the Western Crescent. However, the level of confirmed supply
fell by 8% year on year due to the leasing of a certain number of completed
developments, the availability of which has fallen to 45%.

Building permit obtained

1 200

>3
.2 million sq m of projects managed by a developer or an investor, but without
building permits, were recorded.

>T
he increase in developments underway has mainly been seen in the capital,
where the volume of buildings under construction or refurbishment increased
by 70% compared with the end of 2014. Over 2015, Paris South was the
submarket with the most new building deliveries, with a concentration in the
15th district.

Construction started

new and refurbished or renovated buildings with environmental certification
Delivered

Construction started

Building permit obtained

Building permit requested

1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Paris

CBD

 

b  
rd  
se
cent
urb
Paris
burb
ubur
Paris
ubur
e ub
le No
éfen
Cres
hern
ern
n Su
rn S
rn S
2d S
La D
Bouc
ther
aste
East
stern
rthe
u
E
e
o
h
o
t
r
N
W
r
S
e
r
r
No
Inn
Inne
Inne
Source: Colliers International France

Sout

the office market in the greater paris region

Rents remain widely stable
Headline transaction rents (€ excl. taxes and charges/sq m/year)

Rental values remain stable …

New or refurbished premises

> There was no significant change in rental values in the Greater Paris Region
in 2015.
> Rental values in traditional office districts such as the Central Business
District in Paris remained stable or increased slightly, whereas other less
buoyant markets, such as La Défense or the Northern Loop, have seen
reductions in rental values.
> Incentives granted by landlords also remained stable. These stand at an
average of 15% to 25% in the Greater Paris Region.

... but with significant geographic disparities
> The differences in rents between submarkets remain considerable and can
be three times higher in some locations than others.

Second-hand premises

> Apart from geographical location, these differences are also due to flagging
demand for some submarkets (La Défense, Inner Suburbs excluding the
Western Crescent) along with plentiful supply which is placing strong
pressure on landlords.
> These disparities can also be seen in the level of incentives which are often
lower than 20% in Paris whereas they can exceed the average for the Greater
Paris Region (21.5%) in some submarkets in the Inner Suburbs.
Source: Colliers International France

8

The Greater Paris Region office market | Q4 2015

the office market in the greater paris region

9

The Greater Paris Region office market | Q4 2015

502 offices in
67 countries on
6 continents
United States: 140
Canada: 31
Latin America: 24
Asia Pacific: 199
EMEA: 108

Thibault DE GUELTZL
Head of Real Estate Services France
Tel.: + 33 1 73 01 21 00
Mobile: +33 6 67 19 16 35
E-mail : thibault.degueltzl@colliers.com
Laurence BOUARD
Head of Research France
Tel.: + 33 1 73 01 21 00  
Mobile: +33 6 81 56 49 02
E-mail: laurence.bouard@colliers.com
Colliers International France
41 Rue Louise Michel - 92300 Levallois Perret, France
Tel.: + 33 1 73 01 21 00
SAS au capital de 8 953 104 Euros
344 443 296 RCS Nanterre
www.colliers.com/france

€1.7

billion in revenue

160

square metres under management

16,300

employees

About Colliers International
Colliers International is one of the global leaders in real estate services, with more than 16,300 employees
in 500 offices and 67 countries. A holding of FirstService Corporation, Colliers endeavours to accelerate
its clients’ success in offering a complete services offer to users, owners, and investors. In France, our
experts in real estate strategy, project management, office architecture, and workplace and communication
consulting help our clients reduce occupancy costs and implement high performing flexible strategies.
Copyright@2016 Colliers International
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every
reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is
assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to
acting on any of the material contained in this report.

Accelerating success.



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