gornall OVERVIEW .pdf



Nom original: gornall OVERVIEW.pdfAuteur: Alhajiji

Ce document au format PDF 1.5 a été généré par Microsoft® Word 2013, et a été envoyé sur fichier-pdf.fr le 04/08/2017 à 19:00, depuis l'adresse IP 37.239.x.x. La présente page de téléchargement du fichier a été vue 429 fois.
Taille du document: 517 Ko (7 pages).
Confidentialité: fichier public


Aperçu du document


УД 621.311
Шафик Фаик Абдул Разак аль-Хаджи
магистрант кафедры электроснабжения ИЭЭ НТУУ «КПИ»

ОБЗОР ПЕРСПЕКТИВНЫЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ ЭНЕРГИИ ИРАКЕ
Аннотация
Приоритетные критические технологии, направленные расчета энергии и энергоэффективности. С
помощью приложения аналитической иерархии процесса . Формирование иерархии критериев оценки критических
технологий. Используя информацию и оценки критических технологий в энергетике осуществлять по критеріям:
1) экономическая эффективность;
2) конкурентоспособность;
3) технологическая сложность;
4) расходы;
5) риск.
1. Экономическая эффективность включает годовые объемы продаж новой наукоемкой продукции в
стоимостных показателях (млн долл). В приведенных экспертные оценки экономической эффективности каждой
критической технологии.
2. Конкурентоспособность критических технологий, оценивается по сравнению с отечественными и
иностранными аналогами.
3. Технологическая сложность критических технологий измеряется двумя параметрами:
- A - срок выполнения научного исследования до внедрения технологии и начало производства новой
наукоемкой продукции;
- B - в экспертные оценки по второму параметру представлены в виде интервалов.
4. Расходы. Включают расходы в денежном и временном:- общая сумма финансирования научных исследований к внедрению технологии;
- объемы расходов на внедрение технологии минимальный, средний, максимальный;
- сроки внедрения технологии минимальный, средний, максимальный.
5. Риск.
КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СЛОВА: КРИТИЧЕСКИЕ ПРИОРИТЕТЫ; РИСКИ; ПРЕДВИДЕНИЕ; ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ
ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТЬ; КОНКУРЕНТОСПОСОБНОСТЬ.

Шафік Фаік Абдул Разак
магістрант кафедри електропостачання ІЕЕ НТУУ «КПІ»

ОГЛЯД, ПЕРСПЕКТИВНІ ТЕХНОЛОГІЇ, ЕНЕРГІЇ ІРАКУ
Анотація
Пріоритетні критичні технології, спрямовані розрахунку енергії та енергоефективності. За допомогою
програми аналітичної ієрархії процесу. Формування ієрархії критеріїв оцінки критичних технологій. Використовуючи
інформацію та оцінки критичних технологій в енергетиці здійснювати за критеріями
1) економічна ефективність;
2) конкурентоспроможність;
3) технологічна складність;
4) витрати;
5) ризик
1. Економічна ефективність включає річні обсяги продажів нової наукомісткої продукції у вартісних
показниках (млн дол). У наведених експертні оцінки економічної ефективності кожної критичної технології.
2. Конкурентоспроможність критичних технологій, оцінюється в порівнянні з вітчизняними та іноземними
аналогами.
3. Технологічна складність критичних технологій вимірюється двома параметрами: - A - Термін виконання наукового дослідження до впровадження технології і початок виробництва нової
наукомісткої продукції
- B - Експертні оцінки по другому параметру представлені у вигляді інтервалів.
4. Витрати. Включають витрати в грошовому та часовому: - загальна сума фінансування наукових досліджень до впровадження технології
- обсяги видатків на впровадження технології мінімальний, середній, максимальний,
- терміни впровадження технології мінімальний, середній, максимальний.
5. Ризики
КЛЮЧОВІ СЛОВА: КРИТИЧНІ ПРІОРИТЕТИ; РИЗИКИ; ПЕРЕДБАЧЕННЯ; ЕКОНОМІЧНА ЕФЕКТИВНІСТЬ;
КОНКУРЕНТОЗДАТНІСТЬ.

Shafeek Faiq Abdul Razak Alhajiji
Master student IEE NTUU «KPI»

OVERVIEW PERSPECTIVE TECHNOLOGIES OF ENERGY IRAQ
Abstract
Priority critical technologies aimed to calculate the energy and energy efficiency. With the application of analytic
hierarchy process. Formation evaluation criteria hierarchy of critical technologies. Using the information and assessment of
critical energy technologies to carry out according to criteria:
1) economic efficiency;
2) competitiveness;
3) the technological complexity;
4) costs;
5) risk.
1. Economic efficiency includes annual sales of new high-tech products in value terms (million dollars). In these expert
assessments of the cost-effectiveness of each critical technology.
2. Competitiveness critical technologies evaluated in comparison with domestic and foreign counterparts.
3. Technological complexity of critical technologies is measured by two parameters: - A - Term of scientific research to the introduction of technology and the start of production of a new high-tech
products
- B - Expert estimates for the second option presented in the form of intervals.
4. Costs. Include the cost in money and time - the total amount of research funding for the introduction of technology
- expenditure on implementation of the technology the minimum, average, maximum,
- Dates technology implementation minimum, medium, maximum.
5. Risks.
KEYWORD: PRIORITIES CRITICAL; RISK; FORESIGHT; ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY, COMPETITIVENESS ABILITY.

Introduction
To calculate the priorities of critical energy technologies for a variety of criteria of economic efficiency,
competitiveness, technological complexity, and others.

Actuality
Criterion is important for the correct selection of advanced technologies, and for its detail, it is necessary to conduct
additional expert evaluation. It is necessary that each of the critical technology has been evaluated the risk.

Investigation structure
prioritize critical
technologies

the main
objective of
the

economic
efficiency

competitiveness

technological
complexity

costs

criterion

annual sales of
new high-tech
products in value
terms

under
criterion

in comparison with
analogues

compared with
foreign counterparts

the term research
to technology

start of production
of new high-tech
products

total funding for
technology research
the volume of
expenditure on
technology

timing of introduction
of technology

Figure 1. Sequential circuit Stages analytic hierarchy process

the risk of

Statement of the problem
The relative importance of each of these criteria. According to the method of analysis of hierarchies, these are
determined by the importance of the results of expert evaluation procedure for pairwise comparisons, for each pair of criteria
expert indicates the amount of the benefits of one criterion over another, using a special fundamental scale evaluation.
Obtaining expert assessments of paired comparisons of criteria analysis method is based on the following questionnaire the
examiner should provide estimates of pairwise comparisons criteria:
n(n 1) /2 10 ,
Were
n  5 Number Criteria.
Table 2
Compare which of the criteria
 are more important when choosing a priority of critical technologies. What is the
advantage of a criterion on the left above the criterion in the right

The
Economic
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
competitiveness
efficiency
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
of the
Economic
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
Technological
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
efficiency
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
complexity
Economic
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
Costs
efficiency
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
Economic
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
The risk of
efficiency
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
The
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
Technological
competitiveness
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
complexity
of the
The
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
competitiveness
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
The risk of
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
of the
The
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
competitiveness
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
The risk of
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
of the
Technological
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
Costs
complexity
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
Technological
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
The risk of
complexity
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
Costs
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
The risk of
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
Таблица 3
According to the results of expert evaluation matrix is constructed of paired comparisons
Economic
Competitive
Competitive ability
efficiency
ability
Competitive priority
Economic efficiency
Competitiveness ability
Technological complexity
Costs

Costs

Risk

1
1
1
1
1

Comparison matrix
The matrix of pairwise comparisons symmetric matrix, each element of which is a positive integer that indicates the
degree of preference criterion in the line above criterion in the column for the principal purpose of the study. Calculation of
criteria weights is carried out by the principal eigenvector according to which weight the elements of the eigenvector matrix of
pairwise comparisons, corresponding to the largest eigenvalue
Table 4
Double comparison, in technological sophistication more important criteria in selecting priority of critical
technologies.
Competitiveness
Competitiveness
Compared with
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
with foreign
advantage
strong
same
strong
advantage
domestic
counterparts
counterparts

Table 5
Comparison between double under the criteria of cost significant when choosing a priority of critical technologies
Time frame for
Started
implementation
production
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
of research to
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
of the new
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
implementation
high-tech
of technology
products
Table 6
Comparison between double under the criteria of cost significant when choosing a priority of critical technologie
The costs
competitive
Competitiveness
Absolute
Very
The
Very
Absolute
with
Strong Weak
Weak Strong
with foreign
advantage strong
same
strong advantage
domestic
counterparts
counterparts
The relative importance:Calculation of coefficients of the relative importance of the criteria. The evaluation of critical technologies in the
energy sector, the majority of criteria are somewhat under the criteria similarly evaluation criteria, the following survey forms
are built to provide expert evaluations of paired comparisons under the criteria:
Table 6
Comparison of dual criteria of competitiveness is more important when choosing a priority of critical
Total funding
technology
research

Absolute
advantage

Very
strong

Strong

Weak

The
same

Weak

Strong

Very
strong

Absolute
advantage

Levels of
implementation
costs

Total funding
technology
research

Absolute
advantage

Very
strong

Strong

Weak

The
same

Weak

Strong

Very
strong

Absolute
advantage

Timing of the
introduction of
technology

The volume
expenditure
technology

Absolute
advantage

Very
strong

Strong

Weak

The
same

Weak

Strong

Very
strong

Absolute
advantage

Timing of the
introduction of
technology

Technologies. The advantages of a criterion on the left above the criteria case
To determine the importance of the criteria and the criteria for the assessment of critical technologies in energy was
drawn 12 experts, each of them had data form similar to that shown above.
Table 7
Matrix of paired comparisons based on assessments provided by the first expert
Competitive priority
Economic efficiency
Competitiveness ability
Technological complexity
Costs
The risk

Economic
efficiency
1
1/5
1/3
1/3
1/5

Competitive ability
5
1
1/3
1
1

Competitive
ability
3
3
1
3
5

Costs

Risk

3
1
1/3
1
1

5
1
1/5
1
1

Matrix is consistent, because the ratio of coherence for it is (OC = 0.092) and less than the threshold value (0.1). So
the evaluation given by the first expert, agreed and can be used to calculate priorities. Coefficients of the relative importance
of the criteria is the main elements of the eigenvector matrix of pairwise comparisons, corresponding to the largest eigenvalue
of the matrix. For the above matrix of paired comparisons has the greatest weight criteria of economic efficiency coefficient of
relative importance (0.486), all other criteria are much less important. Estimates of pairwise comparisons of criteria and
coefficients are calculated relative importance of the evaluation criteria for the critical technologies derived (12) you experts.
The next stage of the analytic hierarchy pairwise comparisons of alternatives critical technologies for each of the
criteria and the construction of the corresponding matrices of pairwise comparisons of alternatives for each criterion.
For this data can be used, provided Calculation of prioritization of critical technologies for each of the criteria. The
researchers suggest three clusters of critical technologies:
1 - Energy-saving technologies;
2 - Renewable Energy;
3 - Ecological house/

Questionnaire
First, clusters have been evaluated for each criterion, the second phase evaluated the specific critical technologies
within each cluster. As a result, priorities have been found for each criterion energy-saving technologies and renewable power
industry technology. For the evaluation of clusters of critical technologies of the experts were asked to compare the three
clusters Energy Technology, Renewable Energy, Environmental house for each criterion. For example, the questionnaire for
comparing clusters of critical technologies for the criteria of economic efficiency as follows: A- Energy-saving technologies and renewable energy
- The degree of superiority of one group over another group of technologies Technology
- Provide more annual sales
B - Energy-saving technologies and eco house
- The degree of superiority of one group over another group of technologies Technology
- Provide more annual sales
C - Renewable Energy and Eco-house
- The degree of superiority of one group over another group of technologies Technology
- Provide annual sales of similar Questionnaires brought experts to compare

Criterion
Economic efficiency (0.486)

Competitive ability (0.137)

Technological
complexity (0.066)
Costs

Table 8
Unit’s priorities, foresight biotechnology for each standard
Sub-criterion
The relative importance of the factors
Annual sales of new high-tech products (1)
0.486
Competitiveness with domestic counterparts
0.017
(0.125)
Competitiveness with foreign analogues
0.120
(0.875)
The term research to introducing technology
0.054
(0.833)
Start of production of new high-tech products
0.011
(0.167)
Total funding research to introducing
0.072
technology (0.481)
Costs implementation of the technology
0.060
(0.405)
Timing of technology adoption (0.114)
0.017
Risk (1)
0.162

Calculation
Clusters of critical technologies for other criteria. According to the results of pairwise comparisons were constructed
matrix of pairwise comparisons of clusters are calculated on the criteria of these two methods priorities clusters EM and
RGMM shown in the last columns of these matrice
Table 9
Matrix clustering of paired comparisons for criteria according to
Annual sales volume
Energy-saving technology
Renewable energy sources
Environmental construction
CR/IGS

Energy-saving
technology
1
1
5

Renewable energy
sources
1
1
2

Environmental
construction
1/5
1/2
1

Priorities
(em)
0.166
0.225
0.61
0.092

Priorities
(rgmm)
0.166
0.225
0.61
0.268

Table 10
Competitiveness with
domestic counterparts
Energy-saving technology
Renewable energy sources
Environmental construction
CR/IGS

Competitiveness with domestic counterparts
Energy-saving Renewable energy Environmental
technology
sources
construction
1
5
1/ 5
1/5
1
1/5
5
5
1

Priorities
(em)
0.234
0.080
0.685
0.283

Priorities
(rgmm)
0.234
0.080
0.685
0.863

Table 11
Competitiveness with
foreign counterparts
Energy-saving technology
Renewable energy sources
Environmental construction
CR/IGS

Competitiveness compared to foreign analogues
Energy-saving
Renewable energy
Environmental
technology
sources
construction
1
3
1/ 3
1/3
1
1/3
3
3
1

Priorities
(em)
0.281
0.135
0.584
0.130

Priorities
(rgmm)
0.281
0.135
0.584
0.402
Table 12

Term of performance of scientific research to implementation
Term of performance of
scientific research to
implementation
Energy-saving technology
Renewable energy sources
Environmental construction
CR/IGS

Energy-saving
technology

Renewable energy
sources

Environmental
construction

Priorities
(em)

Priorities
(rgmm)

1
1/7
1/3

7
1
1

3
1
1

0.694
0.132
0.174
0.077

0.694
0.132
0.174
0.239
Table 13

Start of production
Energy-saving technology
Renewable energy sources
Environmental construction
CR/GCI

Energy-saving
technology
1
1/3
1/3

Start of production
Renewable energy Environmental
sources
construction
3
3
1
3
1/3
1

Priorities
(em)
0.5 8 4
0.281
0.135
0.130

Priorities
(rgmm)
0.584
0.281
0.135
0.402
Table 14

Total research scientific and studies
The total amount of funding
for research in
Introduction
Energy-saving technology
Renewable energy
Environmental construction
CR/GCI

Energy-saving
technology

Renewable energy
sources

Environmental
construction

Priorities
(em)

Priorities
(rgmm)

1
1/3
1/3

3
1
1

3
1
1

0.600
0.200
0.200
0

0.600
0.200
0.200
0
Table 15

Levels of implementation
costs
Energy-saving technology
Renewable energy
Environmental construction
CR/GCI

Energy-saving
technology
1
1/3
1/3

Levels of implementation costs
Renewable energy Environmental
sources
construction
3
3
1
1
1
1

Priorities
(em)
0.600
0.200
0.200
0

Priorities
(rgmm)
0.600
0.200
0.200
0

Table 16
Levels of implementation
costs
Energy-saving technology
Renewable energy
Environmental construction
CR/GCI

Levels of implementation costs
Energy-saving
Renewable energy Environmental
technology
sources
construction
1
1/ 3
1/ 3
1/3
1
1
1/3
1
1

Priorities
(em)
0.143
0.429
0.429
0

Priorities
(rgmm)
0.143
0.429
0.429
0

Table 17
Risks
Energy-saving
technology

Renewable energy
sources

Environmental
construction

Priorities
(em)

Priorities
(rgmm)

Energy-saving technology

1

1/5

1/7

0.075

0.075

Renewable energy

5

1

1/2

0.333

0.333

Environmental construction
CR/GCI

7

2

1

0.592
0.014.

0.592
0.340.

The risk of

After combining these estimates 1 st expert on all the criteria, using the method of synthesis of the distribution
hierarchy analysis method, it was found that the highest priority cluster of critical technologies is the ecological construction.
Table 18
Group Technology Foresight priorities technologies by the Group of Experts (1)
A group of technological foresight
distribution synthesis of global priorities
environmental construction
0.519
energy-saving technology
0.257
renewable energy
0.225
The spectra of priority
Global priorities clusters, of critical technologies derived by evaluating each of 12 - experts consistency coefficients
expert. evaluations show the spectra of individual priorities clusters Energy-saving technologies and ecological construction is
not fully harmonized . This occurs because the evaluation third expert differ greatly from estimates provided by other 11 - th
experts. In this regard, it is advisable, to remove the third view evaluation , and without them count group's priorities
clusters of critical technologies.
The Results:
expert estimates suggest that the highest priority cluster of critical technologies
ecological construction numerical priority value 0.426;
clusters of energy efficiency and renewable energy are of less importance;
power supply of buildings and structures technology eco efficient use of renewable energy sources this technology is
the highest priority, so in the future ecological construction cluster;
5) all competitive results of technology refers to it as in the table below.
Table 19
Priorities estimates of critical technologies alternatives
1)
2)
3)
4)

Individual priorities effectively evaluate alternatives
Energysaving
technologies
Renewable
Energy
Ecological
construction

1.
2.
3.

Group
priorities

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

0.257

0.254

0.677

0.223

0.143

0.322

0.251

0.358

0.229

0.16

0.319

0.216

0.284076

0.225

0.269

0.23

0.416

0.248

0.535

0.165

0.176

0.391

0.24

0.179

0.405

0.289887

0.519

0.477

0.093

0.361

0.609

0.143

0.584

0.466

0.38

0.6

0.502

0.379

0.426105

References
Saaty T.L. Decision-making with the AHP: Why is the principal eigenvector necessary European Journal of
Operational Research.2003. Vol.145, №1. P.85 - 91.
Saaty Thomas L. Theory of the Analytic Hierarchy and Analytic Network Processes- Examples, Part 2.2. System
research and information technologies. 2003. - №2. P.7 34.
Saaty Thomas L. The Analytic Network Process, Examples, Part 2.3. Sistemnі research and information technology.
2003.


Aperçu du document gornall OVERVIEW.pdf - page 1/7
 
gornall OVERVIEW.pdf - page 3/7
gornall OVERVIEW.pdf - page 4/7
gornall OVERVIEW.pdf - page 5/7
gornall OVERVIEW.pdf - page 6/7
 




Télécharger le fichier (PDF)


gornall OVERVIEW.pdf (PDF, 517 Ko)

Télécharger
Formats alternatifs: ZIP



Documents similaires


gornall overview
gornall geometric
presentation thesisi 2015
business intelligence on the chinese greentech market
projet communication commission sur lunion de lenergie
hotel energy solutions

Sur le même sujet..