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Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine
National Technical University of Ukraine
Kiev Polytechnic Institute
Institute For energy Saving and Energy Management
Department of Energy Supply

The effectiveness of the implementation of distributed
generation sources (Sustainable & conventional)
Appropriate of Iraq
Thesis University
Part of the Fulfillment of Obtaining the Master's Degree in Energy Supply
2013-2015
Scientific adviser
Supervisor Dr. Prof

Artem Mikhailovich Kovalchuk
Specialty №. (8.05070103) Electrotechnical Systems of Electricity Consumption

Shafeek Faiq Abdul Razak Al hajiji
Master’s Degree
Republic of Iraq
Group OE-31M- IEE
Ukraine –Kyiv
June 2015

INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………….……...07
SECTION 1
POWER SUPPLY USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES IN IRAQ
MODERN CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
1.1

THE PURPOSE OF THE RESEARCH.
1.1.1 Research methodology.....................................................................................13
1.1.2 Power supply system in Iraq and the current trend..........................................14
1.1.3 Sustainable energy System sources of the Iraq................................................17
1.1.4 Concept of modern energy strategy of alternative energy sources in Iraq…...19
1.1.5 Opportunities and barriers to the use of alternative energy sources……..…...20

1.2. ANALYSIS OF OPPORTUNITIES AND CHOOSE THE POWER STRUCTURE OF
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SOURCES
1.2.1. Main objectives energy systems.......................................................................23
1.2.2. Forecasting and performance audit of energy..................................................26
1.2.3 Evaluation and selection priority technologies of sustainable energy sources.28
1.2.4 Risk assessment of technical energy systems of alternative energy sources...29
1.2.5 Methodology adopting an integrated regional structure supply………...…….31
1.3 METHOD OF CALCULATION AND GRAPHICS

1.3.1 Energy & Power................................................................................................33
1.3.2 Search method for calculation of population and economic consumption…....34
1.3.3 Performance energy................................................. …………………….........36
1.3.4. Level of the model of iraq's in per capita share of energy global ……….......37
1.3.5. Available capacity current actual of production and consumption…………..39

1.4 ABSTRACT SECTION 1
1.4.1 Conclusions first section..................................................................................41
1.4.2 Recommendations first researcher to section .......................................................42

2

SECTION 2
PREDICTION ENERGY INDICATORS

2.1 MODELLING FOR THE PREDICTION
2.1.1 Predictability in achieving the priorities systems..............................................44
2.1.2 Time Series Data in the range of the potential for using sustainable sources…45
2.1.3 Modeling forecasting time series.......................................................................46
2.1.4 The justification of the choice of methods forecasting energy indicators..........49
2.1.5 Comparative analysis of methods prediction......................................................53

2.2

SIMULATION FORECAST FOR ENERGY SYSTEM OF IRAQ
2.2.1 Exponential smoothing forecast indicators.......................................................57
2.2.2 The model of linear growth............................................... .......................... ...59
2.2.3 The construction of the model to predict the energy performance seasonal...60
2.2.4 The quality assurance model and measurement accuracy of the forecast........63
2.2.5 The results of the audit quality forecast model................................................64

2.3

ENERGY PLANNING MODELS
2.3.1 Rationale and forecasting model of energy……………………...……...…66
2.3.2 Energy indicators for the choice of model for long-term forecasting.............68
2.3.3 Optimization criteria and constraints................................................................69
2.3.4 Objective function model..................................................................................71
2.3.5 The energy performance of a hybrid model for forecasting..............................72

2.4 ABSTRACT SECTION 2
2.4.1 Conclusions second section .......................... ...................................................75
2.4.2 Recommendations second..................................................................................76

3

SECTION 3
FORMATION OF THE STRUCTURE OF PRIORITY TECHNOLOGIES OF
ENERGY GENERATION RISK-BASED
3.1. OBJECTIVES OF TECHNOLOGIES ENERGY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION
OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES
3.1.1 Priority technologies and analysis selection multi criteria …………..….……77
3.1.2 Modeling solution of the multi criteria .........................................................79
3.1.3 The evaluation indicators of priority technologies of energy generation….….80
3.1.4 Research methodology, forecasting strategy in Iraq……………..…..………81
3.1.5 Analysis of clairvoyance bio technology. in iraq's energy strategy.........85
3.2 FORMATION OF THE STRUCTURE OF PRIORITY TECHNOLOGIES OF
ENERGY GENERATION
3.2.1 Criteria and alternatives priority technologies of energy generation…….......94
3.2.2 Scale of the relative importance of methods analytic hierarchy process…….96
3.2.3 The definition of consistency of expert judgment...........................................99
3.2.4 Versions priority trust evaluation...................................................................118
3.2.5 Consistency local priorities in Iraq................................................................130
3.3 AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO CHOOSING THE STRUCTURE OF ENERGY
SUPPLY ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES
3.3.1 Methodology planning....................................................................................109
3.3.2 Scale of the relative importance of Mai.........................................................113
3.3.3 Forecast the cost of electricity for industrial consumers................................116
3.3.4 Priority technologies of energy generation with the analytic hierarchy.........118
3.3.5 Tariffs of electricity generated from alternative energy sources....................131
3.4 ABSTRACT SECTION 3
3.4.1 Conclusions third section..............................................................................133
3.4.2 Recommendations third section ...................................................................133

4

SECTION 4
SOFTWARE TO ASSESS RISK TECHNICAL SYSTEMS OF
ALTERNATIVE SOURCES

4.1 Algorithm estimating the risks of using the method of analytic networks........135
4.2. Network structure objectives risk analysis technical energy system................138
4. 3 Analysis of results risk assessment...................................................................140

4. 4 ABSTRACT TO SECTION 4
4.4.1 Conclusions fourth Section ............................................................................143
4.4.2 Recommendations fourth section....................................................................144

SECTION 5
5.1 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS DISSERTATION…….…..145

LIST OF REFERENCE.……………………………………………………..…..148
SECTION 6
BOOKLET UNIVERSITY (APPENDIX & DOCUMENTS).

………………………………………………..….157
…………………………….……….….160
Efficient use of the distributed generation……..……161
Efficiency average geometric………………...……172
Overview perspective technologies………………......180
supply energy of systems photovoltaic hybrid.........189
research at. 29. Dec.2014 Hall 318 floor 3 building 22 IEE.KPI
26. Jun. 2015 Hall 309 floor 3 building 22 IEE.KPI
…………………………………..…………………….…198
....199
Calendar thesis Master Plan…………………………………………………200
Certificate wipo…………………………………………………………..……….2004
5

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
A E S….Alternative energy sources.
GDP…..Gross Domestic Product.
WEP….Wind energy plant.
TES ….Technical energy system.
AHP….Analytic hierarchy process.
NNP......Neural Network Process .
DM…...Decision maker.
SHP…..Small hydropower plants.
IPS…....Integrated Power System.
SES…...Solar electron system.
MAO….Mean absolute output.
MSE......Mean square error.
MAPE...Mean absolute percentage error.
APE…..Average percentage error.
CИ……Consistency index.
ИC…....Standard correction, Average random consistency index.
ОС……Random consistency index.
R………Normalizing factor.
N……...Degree of Matrix of expert judgment.

 ……Weight of geometric mean.
Q……...Vector priorities.
P……...Sequence proportionality.



………..Deviations

consistency index.

S…..…Sumeach matrix column of expert judgment.

6

Introduction
Acceleration of technological development and the evolution of all life activities
on this planet, and the urgent need to improve energy efficiency also requires the
replacement of natural resources, which led to an increase in natural disasters and
events evolution of environmental balanced activity with human activities that lead to
non - environmental balance to sustain life. The master's thesis method under the
supervision of the National Technical University of Ukraine, the researcher believes
that the use of systematic hierarchical analysis is an important step in the selection of
the best ways to generate energy from sustainable alternative sources of energy by way
of a true and rating option and priority on several criteria, with economic and
environmental mind and provided technical and regional standards and others for
modeling relationships between the different components of the problem by adopting
a hierarchical structure with the priorities of the allocation solutions alternatives. In
this thesis, a new solution of scientific problems of the trends to predict the
development of hybrid power of the Iraq.
Choose the first-generation technologies of the priority energy system
technology is vital and the use of alternative sources of conventional energy risk
analysis and system energy technical performance using alternative energy sources
which consist in deepening and developing and improving the methodological aspects
and methods and models taking into account a range of factors The effective influence.
Major geographical features
Most geographers divide the geographical characteristics in Iraq,
according to four main areas, the area to the west and south of
the highland desert between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and
mountainous terrain Jubailah north and northeast plains on the
Tigris and Euphrates, the Iraqi official statistics to indicate that
the total area of Iraq 438 446 km 2 space
Total area: 437,072 sq km land area: 432 162 sq km water: 4910
Land border
The border length (3631 km) of land and along the border with
Iran 0.1458 km 0.181 km with Jordan, Kuwait 242 km, and Saudi
Arabia 814 km and 605 km with Syria, and Turkey, 331 km, and
the length of the sea coast 58 km. Iran, 1458 km (906 miles)
Saudi Arabia 814 km (506 miles)
Syria 0.605 km (376 miles)
Turkey 331 km (206 miles)
Kuwait 242 km (150 miles)
Jordan 0.181 km (112 miles)
Total: 3631 km (2256 miles)
Coast: 58 km (36 mi
Statement of the natural features of the Earth's surface or to
describe the land area landmarks

Figure No.1. Map of Iraq natural.
7

The relevance of this thesis is the rational use of natural resources, the
development of alternative (Environmental pollution and energy sector as well as
energy security has become particularly relevant) like any other state, the energy
supply is one of the main factors of the progressive development of the economy and
improve the living standards of the population in implementing energy efficient
technologies based on alternative sources of energy with Lack of emission CO2. And
show a positive trend of development as economic industrial and social sphere. sets
new goals and directions of development of the fuel and energy complex, in the
domestic market of electricity produced by alternative energy sources and use of
biofuels and other fuels from renewable energy sources.
Low efficiency of the use of traditional fuels, unacceptably high distribution
losses, cause the growth of energy consumption and gross domestic product represent
a real threat to economic, energy, environmental, and national security in the general
rise in prices for imported fuel lack of domestic energy resources necessitates the
development and use of technologies alternative energy sources. Questions about
building and development of energy efficient technologies are the subject of a long
time research in many countries the world.

Figure No.2.Priorities of the Petroleum
Exporting countries.

Figure No.3.Serialization priorities.

8

Biotechnology and environmentally friendly use of energy-saving potential and
sources of energy-saving alternative energy devotes considerable attention from the
United Nations system and international organizations. The research projects and the
allocation in the field of alternative energy sources, dramatically. There are a large
number of international scientific conferences and events with Iraq to analyze the
opportunities and prospects for sustainable energy development and experts in various
industries Energy development and experts from various industries are actively
discussing the various aspects of these problems. Offers a large number of technical
solutions, legislative initiatives, economic and social transformation. To improve the
performance of energy regions of Iraq is necessary to provide a comprehensive solution
of economic technical and organizational tasks. Despite the fact that the issue of using
alternative energy sources are interested in a long time, and the problems of rational
use of energy devoted to many works of domestic and foreign researchers.
The use of an alternate energy is not lost its relevance. Necessary methodological
developments which would provide more opportunities to potential alternative sources
of energy for selecting priority generation technologies, energy efficient and costeffective investment. Communication with academic programs and plans. This work is
carried out in accordance with the direction of the scientific work of the department
(IEE) Energy saving and Energy Management, National Technical University of
Ukraine (KPI). Subject (dissertation) research has a direct relationship with the latest
scientific directions of the department of fundamental research (thesis) work was
carried out in accordance with the program research and development Ministry of
education and science of Ukraine in priority areas of science and technology. The
selected line of research is related to the direction of Iraq because of the importance of
the energy strategy of the research work of energy-efficient technologies integrated
power plants with complex application of means of distributed generation and smarttechnologies. And that history is the history of the emergence of the use of sustainable
energy in Iraq.
1- Battery Baghdad a year (2000 Anno Domini Before the birth of Christ) was
used for the purposes of electroplating gold dinar.
9

2- Irrigation system and raise the water at the time of the so-called Babel (1898
Anno Domini Before the birth of Christ) legend Gardens. Distribution of sources
energy and fossil fuels lines on the map Iraq.

Figure No.4. Economic map of Iraq.

10

SECTION 1.
POWER SUPPLY USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES IN IRAQ MODERN
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES.

1.1 THE PURPOSE OF THE RESEARCH.
The purpose of the study is the application of technological complexity output
And application indicators:

1. Is the effectiveness of regional energy supply alternative energy methods. To
solve scientific problems in the use of technical and economic analysis mathematical
analysis and statistics computational methods and computer modeling to build a
predictive model of energy indicators integrated tool eco-energy scenario modeling
complex computer programs, such as (LEAP) and researcher suggests to forecasting
energy indicators for the period up to 2020, and methods of mathematical statistics
expert evaluation methods, in particular the method of analytic hierarchy process. to
select priority technologies of energy generation and the method of analytic network
For risk assessment technical energy system using alternative energy sources in Iraq.
2. To study the changes of actual power generation traditional and alternative
energy sources and to develop a model for predicting performance data to identify
possible trends in the development of energy sector of Iraq.
3. Develop a set of criteria for the analysis of energy generation technologies and
alternative energy sources to solve the problem of multi-criteria selection of the priority
energy generation technologies. Develop a set of priority technologies for production
of electricity and / or heat to the averaged data with the use of alternative energy sources
with the green tariff for you to indicate the potential and opportunities for the
development of alternative energy fields, power systems Iraq as a whole.
4. Improved classification of groups and subgroups of the risks of energy
generation technical energy systems using alternative energy sources. Further
developed mechanisms of analysis evaluation.
5- Develop a comprehensive approach to the choice of the structure of regional
energy supply Iraq with alternative energy sources in order to maximize the potential
of alternative energy sources.
11

6 - The scientific novelty of the research is to deepen the existing development
and justification of new theoretical and methodological aspects of the choice of the
energy mix of regions with the use of alternative energy sourcesin particular.
7 - Get the further development of the mechanisms of formation, analysis and
evaluation of the energy mix of regions with the use of alternative energy sources. A
comprehensive approach to the choice of the energy mix, the hallmark of which is the
gradual process of assessing the development of energy sector analysis of options for
the structure of regional energy supply and risk management.
8-hybrid forecasting model of energy indicators, which is based on the use of
two models:
- Holt-Winters model for short-term forecasting, as well as an integrated
tool for eco-energy.
- Scenario modeling (LEAP) for long-term forecasting.
9 - Developed and implemented a tool for prioritizing the use of power
generation technologies using alternative energy sources for different territorial units,
providing their expert estimation procedure for economic, technological and
environmental criteria, the aggregation coefficients prioritization of critical
technologies for all criteria and calculation of coefficients of global priorities
technologies.

1.1.1 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY.
1 - Results of forecasting energy indicators allow to identify global trends in the
development of the energy complex Iraq develop an action plan for the further
management of energy generation and energy to plan activities.
2 - Application of the developed approach to assessing the priority of energy
generation technologies using alternative energy sources to meet their ranking criteria
seven (7) takes into account the economic, technical and environmental impacts, which
makes a lot of decision criterion problem of choosing priority technologies of energy
generation more efficient.

12

3 - developed sets of priority technologies generate electricity and / or heat
energy alternative energy sources on the averaged data with the green tariff for (1)
region and (8) of alternatives supplying power systems in Iraq generally.
4 - proposed a mechanism for management decision-making that takes into
account the difficulty of choice in situations of uncertainty and risk

as well as

evaluation parameters and risk analysis technical energy system using alternative
energy sources, which increases the validity of managerial decision-making on the
implementation and operation of renewable energy projects. The results of forecasting
and trend analysis of the energy industry Knowledge transfer and research needs for
preparing mitigation adaptation policy portfolios Development and assessment of
mitigation adaptation Climate Change policy portfolios for Iraq.
5 - The results of calculation of priority technologies of energy generation using
alternative energy sources for Iraq as well as economic.
6 - Environmental technical calculations of indicators of their implementation
were used to analyze the performance of the energy component of sustainable
development Iraq world data for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development
International Energy Agency (IEA).
7 - Methods for evaluation and selection of energy options regions to complex
analysis and implementation of projects using alternative sources of energy, improve
the existing system selection and implementation of projects to harness the potential of
alternative energy sources in regions of Iraq to use.
8 - An integrated approach to the choice of the energy mix of regions with the
use of alternative energy sources in order to implement alternative energy projects and
improvement of the existing power system and risk assessment in the enterprise. And
can be summarized as follows.
1- The use of alternative energy sources, Iraq is considered one region or several
regions.
2- Methods of forecasting trends in the development of energy sector.
3- Work is to improve the efficiency of power supply regions Iraq.
4- Selection of priority technologies of energy generation.
5- Risk analysis and management methods.
13

1.1.2 POWER SUPPLY IN IRAQ AND THE CURRENT TREND.

To improve the efficiency of energy consumption with the environment in mind
for rational energy consumption and the world is committed to the integration of
sources and use of sustainable energy and to support the planning of electricity supply
and this trend has all the countries in the world, regardless of their level of economic
development, the synthesis of competitiveness energy products and source of energy
independence and environmental security is one of the priorities of the state policy of
growth in energy demand has led to the largest development in power plants, fossilthermal stations such as gas and steam and hydro-electric and diesel, and this
significant increase has negative impact on the economy and the environment, and in
this regard, the use of alternative energy sources to power in various sectors of the
growing interest in all parts of the world and Iraq must do more to global trends in the
integration of economic resources due to reasons impasse:
1- Iraq lacks legislation in line with the law on investment in order to integrate
energy sources (conventional and sustainable).
2- Lack of modern technology strategy supported plans to integrate energy sources
in Iraq.
3- Conflict of various government policies and trends of political competition for
power.
The use of alternative sources of energy in Iraq, pays adoption considerable
attention from the United Nations system and international organizations.
Scientific research projects are allocated in the area of alternative energy sources
heavily on the growing interest.
The use of alternative energy sources can also solve environmental problems
associated warming a major problem associated with the increasing concentration of
CO2 in the atmosphere of greenhouse gas accumulation state of the environment and
the efficient use of energy is essential for sustainable development, and global level
taking into account the fact of a prolonged global economic crisis and constantly rising
prices for traditional energy sources alternative energy sources can play a key role in
14

reviving the economy to ensure a uniform approach to the description of the energy
systems use the concept of technical energy system is a set of technical energy
equipment and businesses interacting with each other for the production, consumption
or conversion, storage, transportation or processing of energy.
The principle of operation technical energy system is that the natural resources in
the form of substances are included in the techno sphere collection of all technical
energy system and the products produced by them in the same condition in which they
are not emissions Natural resources are used as inputs in the technical energy system
that is all the equipment and enterprises which are the main output products and
services but that also produce byproducts and emissions of natural resources in the form
of other energy sources such as alternative sources are also used for the direct
conversion of heat into mechanical or electrical energy.

Table No.1.1.Power in Iraq, the current 2014.
Stations

Resume

carbonated
steam station
reciprocating
hydropower

C.P.F.G
T.P.S.S
S.D.F
H.S

Number
of units
183
30
403
29

Design capacity of
the unit
Several - units
Several - units
Mixed - units
Several - units

Total capacity
of MW
12026.9
6140
2301.4
1864

Percentage

22332.3

54%
27%
10%
8%
100%

25000

120%

20000

100%
80%

15000

60%
10000

40%

5000

20%

0

0%
carbonated steam station reciprocating hydropower
The total capacity of MW

percentage

Figure No.1.1.Block diagram of the power plant in 2014.
Table No .1.2.Design capacity of the unit average percentage.
Design capacity of the unit

Average percentage
15

Several - units

0.296666667

Mixed - units

0.1

(blank)

1.0
Average percentage

(blank)

Mixed - units

Several - units

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Figure No .1.2.Clustered bar design capacity of the unit average percentage.

Table No. 1.3.Design capacity of the unit Sum capacity MW.
The design capacity of the unit
Several - units

The sum total capacity of MW
20030.9

Mixed - units

2301.4

(blank)

22332.3

Table No.1.4.Strategy ability and energy to per capita electricity 2006-2011.
General

Electricity

Sale

Year

Per capita

Per capita

Electricity

Electricity

Population
Achieved

Imported

Electricity

2006

32137809

2688426

24833423

24993115

0.99

0.00011

2007

33283350

2196184

24863030

26246043

0.95

0.00011

2008

36780524

2973027

29742670

27025383

1.1

0.00013

2009

46064647

5603882

37052425

27295574

1.36

0.00015

2010

48908179

6722050

38625151

28102135

1.37

0.00016

2011

53902571

7233094

41113889

33338757

1.23

0.00014

16

150000000
100000000
50000000
0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

general achieved

electricity imported

sale electricity

population

per capita electricity

per capita electricity

2011

Figure No.1.3.Column scheme of strategy the ability of electric energy per capita
2006-20011.

1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

per capita electricity

0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Figure No.1.4.Linear scheme of Strategy electric energy 2006-20011.
1.1.3 SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEM SOURCES OF THE IRAQ.
Alternative energy sources - renewable energy sources in Iraq, which include
solar, wind and geothermal energy and potential energy of the water, biomass and
waste, natural gas, unconventional, and sewage biogas units and secondary sources of
energy such as heat recovery and potential waste water treatment (bio-technological
processes) need to use alternative sources of energy economy.
1- due to scarcity and gradual depletion of traditional energy resources.
2- Remove the imbalance in the development of energy sector.
3- Requirements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The cost of primary energy sources of energy development mainly in the direction
of the use of alternative sources of alternative energy sources has become particularly
important in the spread of the concept of sustainable development report.
17

The main objectives of the concept and relate to a wide range of issues covering
economic, social and environmental spheres . At present the share of renewable energy
in the power structure in Iraq amounted to the following.
Table No.1.5.Sustainable energy sources in Iraq 2014.
Stations

Resume

Number
of units

Steam station
Hydropower
The whole
production

T.P.S.S
H.S

30
29

The design capacity of the
unit
Several - units
Several - units

The total
capacity
of mw
6140
1864

Percentage
27%
8%

22332.3

100%

SYSTEM OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN IRAQ
steam station
hydropower

steam station
hydropower

Figure No.1.5.Graph mass fraction system of sustainable energy sources in Iraq.

system of sustainable energy sources in Iraq

hydropower

hydropower

steam station

steam station

stations
0

system of sustainable energy
sources in Iraq

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

stations
0

steam station
27%

hydropower
8%

100%

0

6140

1864

22332.3

Figure No.1.6.Graph fraction system of sustainable energy sources in Iraq.
18

1.1.4 CONCEPTS OF MODERN ENERGY STRATEGY IN IRAQ.

Researcher suggests for the purpose on the development of the concept of vectors
(energy strategy) modern take into consideration the circumstances and Iraq, and also
which take into account current trends in the global energy industry priority of
development areas and formulation of energy strategy are as follows:
1. The competitive environment in the direction of sustainable development of
energy resources, instead of the proliferation of conventional generators.
2. Belligerence about forcing everyone to use Insulation of building structures
(internal and external) to ensure quality.
3. Implementation of measures to optimize the effectiveness of the strategy of
energy consumption.
4. Work to ensure that the proportion of sustainable ways% of the total installed
capacity.
5. Achieve technically use of the potential of renewable energy sources in Iraq until
2020.
6. Focus on safety and the environment.
The use of sustainable energy sources, modern information technology, biosystems and keep up with all the countries in the area of the possibility of employing
the resources of Iraq and the nature of the benefits of the sustainability of these
resources as it is a traditional supplier. At the forefront of these advantages are:
Of independence in the supply of energy at the level of Individual, district.
1- Renewable and inexhaustible.
2- Reduce the cost of energy recovery facilities.
3- Saving energy consumers by decentralization system.
4- There is no energy loss zero, because it is natural resources.
5- Reduce pollution and noise emissions water, air and environment.
6- Alternative energy sources to the consumer reduces transportation costs.
7- Recovery period to build energy facilities using alternative energy sources
faster than build by the fossil fuels.
19

8- The use of alternative energy sources associated with the development of craftbased industries to the impact of the economic recovery community.

1.1.5 OPPORTUNITIES AND BARRIERS TO THE USE OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
SOURCES.

International experience in the use and development of alternative energy
emphasizes the need to support projects using alternative energy sources from before
the State in Iraq, also regional authorities and effective methods dictate to ensure
economy in the following benefits.
1- Economy Ensuring energy security.
The economy is characterized by high volatility of energy imports, leading to high
risks in the economic and political spheres of national security of alternative energy
sources and implementation of energy efficiency and conservation policies can address
these issues and to ensure energy security of the country.
2- Environmental Safety.
Great attention to the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of the energy
sector which has been widely used.
3- Fuel.
Increase in fuel consumption for non-energy raw materials.
Should consider the barriers that prevent existing technical capacity to implement
alternative energy projects. And the barriers of using alternative sources of energy and
economic costs in the absence of a single tariff such barriers can be divided into the
following groups:
1. Economic (cost and price).
2. The Technology.
3. A Legislative.
4. Reliability.
In the field of alternative energy, only a number of legislative acts related to the
low energy and also did not materialize from the objectives and priorities for the
development of alternative energy sources is also no statutory regulations that would
ensure in practice free access of independent producers to the electric networks of
20

power systems. As that the economic Barrier is the lack of development of the existing
mechanisms to encourage the development of alternative energy tax credits, subsidies,
preferential loans to pay compensation obligations concessional lending .... Etc.
Promotion of traditional fuel and energy when compared to conventional and
alternative energy sources are not taken into account the environmental component of
the cost of energy, the cost of recovery and recycling of waste energy interference in
the formation of energy prices and monopolistic structure of the energy market are the
main economic barriers to switching to alternative energy sources. State control of
energy prices and, as a result, pricing below market, which often do not reflect the
medium-term and long-term costs of energy production is a significant barrier to
attracting investment in the modernization and capacity expansion of alternative energy
barriers are also low solvency of the population and enterprises, and lack of incentives
to invest in this type of production.
The greatest obstacle to scientific and technical development is a barrier
technological potential of alternative energy sources in the absence of explicit for some
types of ready-made solutions for energy supply systems, low levels of standardization
of equipment, insufficient scientific, technical and technological developments in order
to break down the barriers of maximum efficiency in energy consumption. And a low
level of knowledge about those innovative technologies.That exist in this area. Another
obstacle in the way of reliability without the use of fuels. Historically, people and
organizations are accustomed to using traditional fuel fossil fuels, besides the whole
industry is also focused only on this type of energy. Sufficiently low prices also
stimulate the development of alternative energy. Information barrier is a lack of
awareness, and the possibilities of alternative energy sources and the lack of broadly
defined features and advantages of alternative energy sources lack of information on
good examples of using the moment a lot of work on the region's energy supply is
dedicated to improving energy efficiency and conservation, namely.
1 - Analysis of the assets of Fuel and Power Control.
3 - Energy development strategies.

21

4 - Areas of energy conservation issue of using the potential of alternative energy
sources is usually considered separately from the above directions Operation smart grid
based on the concept of Smart Grid.
5 - Well construction and efficient operation of distributed generation systems is
considered in the implementation of comprehensive alternative sources.
Traditional energy in the energy sector given that a lot of potential in the field of
alternative energy sources for energy efficiency, alternative sources need to perform a
number of basic tasks that facilitate the creation of effective mechanisms for the
implementation of projects, namely, legal, economic, methodical, information,
personnel and organizational - management software. At the same time, the lack of
scientific advice and a systematic approach to the process of selecting the structure of
energy supply regions complicates the development of projects using alternative energy
sources in this context, the question of improvement of methodological support the
development and implementation of alternative energy projects, as well as the task of
assessing the risks of alternative energy sources the use of alternative energy sources
are actual as following in evaluation methods:
1 - Methods of long-term forecasting.
2 - Planning of energy indicators, theoretical basis and implementation of projects
using alternative energy sources.
3 - Risk monitoring such projects at different territorial levels .Not less important
issue related to energy supply regions.
1. 4 - Using the potential of alternative energy sources is to reduce the harm
caused to the environment in the process of generating energy that pollution
of water, air, soil.
It is obvious that one of the fundamental ways of solving environmental problems
is to reduce energy sector use of traditional resources and the transition to alternative
energy sources.
Prospects for further research involve the development of new and improvement
of existing models the choice of energy sources, methods for selecting priority
technologies of energy generation, risk assessment technical energy system using
alternative energy sources. Planning the structure of energy supply regions using
22

alternative energy sources is possible with the application of a structured and
comprehensive approach to evaluating alternative energy projects.

1.2 SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SOURCES.

1.2.1.THE MAIN OBJECTIVES FOR ENERGY PRODUCTION.
Provides the researcher, and commensurate with the circumstances and the
potential for the current Iraq, to analyze the use of alternative energy sources based on
the task of regional energy department concerned

and requires no technical

organizational and administrative decisions, with a lot

from the analysis of the

standards of energy and the selection of appropriate models for projects obstetric
between those tasks which require analysis and research for more detailed questions,
and most important of these steps include:
1. Predict the long-term model status.
2. Develop training programs, and assessment methods.
3. 3 Select a scientific priority, for various sustainable energy projects.
4. Meet the expected demand for electricity customers.
5. Appropriate level of, security of energy supply.
6. Minimum, the cost of electricity production.
7. Environmental impact of different energy technologies evaluation.
It should be based on need demand to predict electricity on the grounds that the
demand for electricity generation details to industrial clients and the municipality to
meet this demand with less expensive than a financial point level, and the duty of
reliability and affordable to ensure energy security in Iraq and the reduction of
emissions of CO2 into the environment while minimizing the negatives,
accompaniment to generate electricity.
The researcher focuses on the environmental impacts Main methods of forecasting
the demand for electricity main objectives of energy systems and the need for
forecasting the demand for electricity and heat. The main objectives of energy systems
meet projected customer demand for electricity with an appropriate level of security of
23

energy supply at the lowest cost in the production of electricity, the assessment of the
environmental impact of different energy technologies.
The need for forecasting electricity demand consideration should be based on the
specifics of electricity as a commodity, as electricity production is not an end in itself
for energy systems, since unlike other not to be stored. This calls for forecasting
electricity demand from industrial and municipal customers to meet this demand with
the least financial costs, an appropriate level of reliability and reasonable prices, to
ensure energy security of the country and to minimize CO2 emissions into the
environment from power generating facilities and to minimize negative environmental
impacts .
Basic methods of forecasting electricity demand:
1. Method of final consumption.
2. Method of trend analysis.
3. Method of econometric .
4. Method of hybrid .
1 - Method of trend analysis for forecasting electricity demand .
The essence of the method of trend analysis the value of the variable is determined
only by the temporary factor in a variable pattern of behavior in the future will continue
past, however studies based on demand trend over a long period of time in the past,
resulting construct continued trend in the future; trend of long-term average growth
considered as the average increase of the time series.
- Advantages of trend analysis.
Simplicity and ease of use.
- Disadvantages of the method of trend analysis.
Cause forecasting demand does not explain what caused the change in value of
the forecast variable target variable is expressed as a function of time, and is not
associated with economic, demographic, political and technological change, such as
the role of income, prices, population growth and urbanization, political changes, and
so on .
2 - Method of end-use (engineering - economic approach).
24

The essence of the method: the consideration of final energy consumption at the
level of disaggregation; models created by this method is the optimization or simulation
or they differ in the degree of disaggregation, depth presentation and choice of
technology (technology description can be explicitly for specific technologies and
stylistic) and the level of macro-economic integration, which is often limited by the use
of special or common variables impact.
-Advantages of end-use:
A. A detailed description of the use of specific types of final energy consumption
hot water, heating and air conditioning of buildings, lighting, cooking….. etc.
B. The amount of energy consumed by energy-consuming equipment of enterprises
buildings….. etc. described by mathematical equations.
C. There is a possibility of extrapolation to predict future demand.
D. High accuracy for forecasting demand in the housing sector.
- Disadvantage of end-use method.
a. Needs a large amount of statistical data and additional research to account
changes in consumer reaction;
b. b- Is the only system of accounting for the calculation of the total energy
demand by fuel type is determined by multiplying the number of a certain
type of equipment by the average amount of energy consumed, not the
actual value of the energy consumption in reality.
3 - Econometric methods for forecasting demand essence, the advantages and
disadvantages.
The essence of the method Combines economic theory of statistical methods to
construct a system of equations for predicting energy demand and energy depending
on the determinants of demand (GDP, population number of devices systems
technologies………. etc.).
- Benefits of econometric methods:a. Uses statistical data to predict the coming period with the reasons
identified trends;
b. Use explicit causal relationships between the dependent variable
energy.
25

Demand and independent variables (Determinants) affecting the demand for the
determination of the historical relationship between electricity demand and its
determinants: economic (GDP), technological. Number and types of energy consuming
devices, industrial processes, demographic population and others.
- Disadvantages of econometric methods:
a. Requires a consistent set of data for a long time.
b. In predicting incorrectly assumed growth rates for individual
determinants of demand as the pace of change in many cases
interconnected.
c. Not taken into account the role of specific policy measures economic
shocks, which may affect the opposite change in the determinants of
demand.

1.2.2. FORECASTING AND AUDIT INDICATORS OF ENERGY.
Forecasting in energy is one of the objectives of energy monitoring energy
efficiency is also a fundamental component for the formulation of strategies and energy
laws. A significant part of the fuel resources are used specifically for the production of
electricity in this regard particularly urgent task of forecasting the development of
energy sector and such forecasting is interesting not only from the perspective of the
regional economy but also in terms of the largest energy companies in forecasting
future values of a time series on the basis of its historical significance in Energy is the
basis for financial planning management to optimize energy production and in the
monitoring and control of forecasting are divided into the following categories:
1- Medium-term forecasting.
2 - Long-term forecasting.
3- Short-term forecasting.
There are more than 100 classes of models to predict the one day of the week from
one day to one week to one year, more than a year in advance With that, the models
and related methods refer to individual approaches forecasting methods other part is a
set of individual techniques that differ from the base or a friend other number of private
26

receptions and consistency of their application All prediction methods are divided into
two groups:
1- Intuitive subjective experience.
2- Scientific methodology.
The inability of the subjective experience of intuitive skills, producing work to
take into account the impact of external factors distinguishing feature of intuitive
forecasting methods is that they reflect only the individual opinions of experts on
possible options for the development process and therefore does not require the
development of predictive models usually methods of this group are used to analyze
processes, the development of which cannot be mathematical formalization for which
it is difficult to develop an appropriate forecast model. By the intuitive methods include
historical analogies, expert assessments.
Scientific methodology methods can be divided into statistical and structural
models predict essence of statistical models is that analytically defined as external
factors, and functional relationship between the future and the actual values of the time
series. Statistical models are represented by the following groups and are used in the
works:
1- Regression Models.
Used to predict the electrical grid load production facilities and buildings.
2- Autoregressive (AR) model.
This method is used for short-term forecasting of electricity consumption in the
operational cycle with an interval of 5-10 minutes of pre-emption in the works.
3- Exponential smoothing models.
Is used to forecast the annual electricity consumption of the industrial enterprises
of power systems.
The main requirements are high predictive models to predict and simplicity of
algorithms that reduce the time of decision-making and system memory accuracy.
Work in conditions of uncertainty and lack of information on sustainability
management. In the development of methods of stochastic processes to predict, there
are many research. Therefore, the researcher reviews the goal of this research study is
27

not to create new ways to predict, but the researcher provides design best suited to the
reality Indeed techniques of the Iraq.

1.2.3

EVALUATION

AND

SELECTION

PRIORITY

TECHNOLOGIES

OF

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SOURCES.

For any complexly organized activity is a central task of decision-making,
whether it is the choice of further directions of development, the choice of the most
efficient energy source, the resolution of problem situations. Solution may be as simple
or multi-step plan of action in any situation is the act of selection based on a number of
criteria and options. It will be appreciated that many alternatives increase, the
probability of obtaining the most suitable and efficient possible solutions.
Researchers consider the need for implementation of the multi-criteria analysis of
different sources of alternative energy necessitates the use of the Delphi method in
selecting the most efficient environmentally friendly and cost-effective technology
selection task.
Priority technologies of energy generation is a case where a set of objective
indicators are not always able to adequately display the best solutions. In such
situations, it is appropriate to assess the quality of projects and accordingly to carry
out their subsequent selection based on the opinion of specially selected for this purpose
by experts with extensive experience in the field of alternative energy.
The main stages of the expert survey using a researcher at the research method
1- Selection of experts.
2- The organization and the provision of direct survey.
3 - Development of the methodology of the survey and the choice of method
of data processing.
The researcher also wanted to focus on the potential in the selection of the study.
There are two groups of expert evaluations:
- Individual assessment.
It estimates that take into account the views of individual experts independent of
each other.
- Collective assessment.
28

Are based on the collective wisdom of experts.
The researcher recommended to take style collective assessment of the most
suitable for the solution as a joint opinion is more accurate than the individual opinion
of each of the experts.
The researcher selects in its research analysis of the following methods that are
most widely used:
1 - Delphi method using this method in the works carried out an analysis of
future changes in the energy sector forecasting and planning the use of
alternative energy sources.
2 - Analytic hierarchy process, hierarchies Development of methodology for
assessing the cost-effectiveness of diversification of resources in Iraq as well
as the efficiency of the replacement of traditional non-renewable fuel
resources using gas oil, the analytic hierarchy process is seen in the work of
assessment of possible energy scenarios Iraq.
3 - Brainstorming method storming for solving the problem in which experts in
the debate are invited to express the greatest possible number of solutions to
including of even impossible.
4 - The method of writing the script most common technique used in energy
projections scenario forecasts.

1.2.4 RISK ASSESSMENT OF TECHNICAL ENERGY SYSTEMS OF ALTERNATIVE
ENERGY SOURCES.

Explore and develop a classification of risks associated technical energy system
using alternative energy sources.
The researcher believes that Iraq is facing the risk of the following:
1- Financial cost.
2- The tariff price.
3- Investment opportunities.
4- Technological and technical.
5- Ensuring reliability and sobriety.
29

As a researcher presents new concepts for the success of efforts of the state in the
diaper on the safety and security of energy supply and to respond to them is very
important to find the target.
1 - How significant this risk.
2 - How to neutralize these risks.
Technical functioning of the energy system in the energy market of Iraq in the
new competitive environment is inevitably accompanied by the presence of uncertainty
and uncertainty as a result of various types of risks. Currently no experience in risk
assessment technical energy system using alternative energy sources in order to
promote alternative energy projects, to improve the technical, environmental and social
sustainability.
Investment attractiveness small. Risk management of alternative energy is in its
infancy as theoretical studies in the field of energy industry risks do not refer to
industrial, technological or environmental and financial sector economy.
To get out of this situation is possible in the case of the development of scientific
approaches to risk assessment and management and technical energy system and pay
attention to the nature of those risks, and determine the causes, and the classification
of the optimal ones, a standard risk in the energy sector classification, however, the
work of energy companies issues are not considering the use of sources alternative
energy. Employment and subsets of the risks that may arise in the design and operation
of artistic energy system using alternative sources of energy risk management.
The researcher believes, of all the different options, the risk rating, which
determines, the vast majority which will constitute the vast challenges in Iraq:
1 - Local Market.
2 - Of legal matters.
3 - Credit Guarantee.
4 - Organizational public.
5 - Technical and operational risks.
Researcher focuses on one of the most important risk management functions in
the artistic energy system is to create normal to detect and identify risk factors for the
30

procedure and relies on the use of analytical information retrospectively predicted on
the activities of the technical energy system.

1.2.5 METHODOLOGY ADOPTING AN INTEGRATED REGIONAL
STRUCTURE SUPPLY.
The researcher believes that what is happening now in Iraq, where there is no clear
mechanism for several areas of analysis criteria capacity utilization of the potential,
provided through an integrated approach in deciding what of the energy balance in the
areas of alternative energy sources it is necessary to provide more efficient use of
energy in the areas of alternative energy, facilitate and accelerate the decision-making
process in the selection of projects and through the use of alternative energy sources to
reduce the risk of possible losses, in an integrated approach involves a whole range of
industrial activities, scientific and technological, social, economic and other resources,
the relevant provisions of the Iraqi society.
And here confirms the researcher that this methodology will help, for compelling
reasons, at the moment, which are absent in Iraq, automatic multi-standard field
position opportunity analysis and clear use of the potential of alternative energy
sources. The researcher believes an assessment of energy sources of the current
approach in Iraq provide only one component approach, which is not sufficient to
conduct a comprehensive assessment. An integrated approach to choose the
combination of energy sources in parts of Iraq, multistage analysis of how alternative
energy projects, and the risk of the use of alternative energy sources for a variety of
criteria. An integrated approach to select what should be the alternative energy projects
to ensure long-term diagnosis of indicators to identify the major trends in the industry
and region. You must provide a reasonable approach for the implementation of the
initial.
Selection of projects, taking into account economic, environmental and
technological standards for a range of possible. Alternatives. Should include a
component of risk analysis, alternative sources of energy using alternative energy
sources and priority management techniques. The result is an integrated approach
means long-term forecasting of energy indicators, identify priority. The focus of this
31

research scientist in the generation of energy technologies for alternative sources of
energy and risk assessment for the purpose of alternative energy sources in order to
maximize the potential of alternative sources. To create such a system requires the use
of a particular style developed computer device that will solve the problem. The basis
of such instruments should serve to develop a lot of criterion models and approaches
to the choice of the energy mix of regions using alternative energy sources provided a
comprehensive approach. The approach includes performing complex tasks which are
components of the selection process of the energy mix of alternative energy sources
offer the researcher raises these structural style structural scientific serial. Offer
researcher Block diagram of the Republic of Iraq in stages of an integrated approach to
the choice of the energy mix of regions using alternative energy sources. Since the
implementation of the goals and objectives of a multi-stage and extensive scheme to
address them need to use complex mathematical models, each of which is aimed at
solving their problems, with a view to their layout to achieve the goal - more efficient
use of energy for sustainable potential of the regions of the Republic of Iraq.

regression models
Analysis of the potential of
alternative energy sources

Predicting energy indicators
Formation and evaluation
criteria and alternatives to the
use of alternative energy
sources

Prioritization of energy
generation technologies using
alternative energy sources

autoregressive model
exponential smoothing
models
neural network process
модели

model of energy planning
models Markov chains

expert evaluation
analytic hierarchy process
Delphi technique
method of brainstorming

Formation and evaluation
criteria and alternatives to the
risk of technical energy system
using alternative energy
sources
Selection of effective
reception of risk management

method of writing the script

method Foresight
expert evaluation
method analytical networks

Figure No.1.7.Integrated regional supply structures.
32

1.3. METHOD OF CALCULATION AND GRAPHICS.

1.3.1 ENERGY & POWER.
Apparent Energy = Volts × Amps.
Active energy = WATTS.
The energy E = P × t = watts. H.
Electric power = W × 1 hour = 3600 J.
Electricity consumption = KW. Hours / year.
Electricity energy consumption =1000000 × (1 / 23.56.4 × 365,25) Leap year 366 days.
Per capita energy (W) = Energy / Population.
1 PW. h = 1012 kW. h.
1 petawatts (PW) = 3.6e + 18 joule per hour (J / h).
1 petawatts (PW)=3600000000.000.000.000 joule per hour (J / h).
Rating countries in terms of energy consumption per capita is calculated as the
number of electric energy consumption, expressed in (kilowatts. Hours) per person in
the country. The indicator is calculated by the method of the International energy
agency based on national statistics and international organizations.
Is used as an analytical tool for the construction of comparative ratings reflecting
the level of socio-economic development in various countries.
When determining the position in the global ranking of all countries are ranked
on the basis of this index, where the first place in the league table corresponds to the
highest value of this index, and the last the lowest.
Energy consumption per capita.
Is the ratio of the electrical energy consumed in all areas of human activity for a
certain period of time, usually within one year and with of the population, this includes
electricity generated by thermal, geothermal and hydroelectric power stations.
To summarize all these forms of energy, they are expressed in universal units
(kWh) or (kilo watt-hour equals) the amount of energy produced or consumed by the
device at one kilowatt power for one hour.

33

1.3.2.METOD SEARCH FOR CALCULATION OF POPULATION (ECONOMIC
AND CONSUMPTION).
1- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY IN TYPICAL ESTIMATE OF GROWTH
FOR THE POPULATION OF IRAQ.
GR = Annual growth rate.
YC = Comparison year.
YF = Fundamental Year.
GA = Average annual growth rate.
GT = Total collection of the annual growth rate.
NY = Number of years.
GR = YC – YF.
GR = YC – YF.
∑ GT
GA =
× 100% .
NY

GT = GR1 + GR2 + GR3 ....... .GRn.
2- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
POPULATION OF IRAQ .

TO

EVALUATE

THE

TOTAL

An estimate for the population of Iraq at the end of the desired using the following
equation exponential growth.
r = 1/ n (Log e (P1/ P0)).
r=

𝐿𝑛(𝑃1/𝑃𝑂)
𝑛

.

𝑃1

𝑒 𝑟 = ( ) 1/𝑛.
𝑃2

r = Annual growth rate of the population of Iraq.
n = The time period between the base year and the year you want to estimate
the number of the population has.
Log e = The natural logarithm of the population census.
P0 = The population of the fundamental year last population census.
P1 = Population census of people in the last yea.

34

Table No.1.6.Governorates of Iraq as an area and their relative share of area and
population 1997-2009.
Maintenance

1
Nineveh
Kirkuk
Diwali
Anbar
Baghdad
Babylon
Karbala
Wasit
Salah al-Din
Najaf
Al qadisiya
Al muthanna
Dhi qar
Maysan
Basra
Duhok
Erbil
Sulaymaniya
h
Territorial
waters
Total

Land area

Populatio
n 1997

Their share
of
population
census of
1997 (%)

Population
2009

Share of
population
estimates
2007 (%)

Population
growth
rate 19972009 (%)

Km2
2
37 323
9679
17685
137808
4555
5119
5034
17153
24, 363
28824
8153
51740
12900
16072
19,070
6553
15074

%
3
8.6
2.2
4
31.7
1
1.2
1.2
3.9
5.6
6.6
1.9
11.9
3
3.7
4.4
1.5
3.5

4
2042852
753171
1135223
1023736
5423964
1181751
594235
783614
904432
775042
751331
436825
1184796
637126
1556445
402970
1095992

5
9.3
3.4
5.1
4.6
24.6
5.4
2.7
3.6
4.1
3.5
3.4
2
5.4
2.9
7.1
1.8
5

6
3237918
1290072
1370537
1451583
7180889
1727032
1003516
1158033
1259298
1180681
1121782
719824
1846788
1009565
2555542
968901
1471053

7
9.5
3
5.3
5
24.1
5.6
3
3.6
4
3.6
3.3
2.1
5.4
2.8
6.4
1.7
5.2

8
3.8
4.5
1.6
2.9
2.3
3.2
4.4
3.3
2.8
3.5
3.3
4.2
3.7
3.8
4.1
7.3
2.5

17023

3.9

1362739

6.2

1551974

6.4

1.1

924

0.2

435052

100

22046244

100

32104988

100

3.1

Table No.1.7.Iraq's population according to the Census for the years 1934 -1997
according to the environment.
Population

Census
year

Attended

Reeve

Total

Urban

Countryside

1934

-

-

3380533

-

-

1947

-

-

4816185

-

-

1957

2435638

4100471

6536109

37.3

62.7

1965

4112291

3935124

8047415

51.1

48.9

1977

7646054

4354443

12000497

63.7

36.3

1987

11468969

4866230

16335199

70.2

29.8

35

40
29.7
30

21.9
16.3

20
10

0

32.1

4.8

6.3

8

1947
4.8

1957
6.3

1965
8

12
Linear ()
1977
12

1987
16.3

1997
21.9

2007
29.7

2009
32.1

Figure No.1.8 Line graph is a typical growth over
multiple decades 1947-2009.
4
%

3.22
3

2.72

3.06

2.95

3.05

2
1
Linear ()
0

19471957
2.72

19571977
3.22

19771987
3.06

19871997
2.95

19972007
3.05

Figure No.1.9 Linear graph represents the population growth
for several decades 1947-2007.

1.3.3. INDICATORS OF ENERGY.
1-Barrels of oil equivalent (ARES).
The main directions of development of alternative renewable base for Global
standards group unite million. Ton. P equivalent unit (Petrol / year).
-Tons Oil equivalent = 117 (33, 7, 4) and (7) per barrel of oil equivalent (1)
-Tons Oil equivalent in renewable.
Energy equivalent = (217 45) Giga. Jules.
Jules 1 = 1 kg. 2 m / s 2 Barrels of oil equivalent, (BOE) is:
Is a unit of energy on the basis of the approximate energy released by the burning of
(1) a barrel of crude oil.

36

(BOE) is used by oil and gas companies, in their financial statements as a way to
collect between oil and natural gas reserves and production to one measure though that
this power parity, does not take into account the financial value.
(5.8 × 106 BTU). (5.8 × 106 BTU 59 ° F) = 6.1178632 × 109 J) or 1.7 megawatt hours.
Value (1) B = 5.4 GJ (1) BOE = 5,800 M3 natural gas.
1- Used to measure the production and consumption daily
Million barrels per day (MMBOED or MMboepd).
2 - Used to measure petroleum reserves.
Billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE) = 109 barrels of oil.
3 - Metric weight of oil equivalent (BOE).
1 ton of oil = 6.8 to 7.5 barrels size.
4 - Average energy value.
BOE has of 39.68 million British thermal units.
5 - Volume of oil equivalent.
42 gallons = 158.9873 liter.

1.3.4. LEVEL OF THE MODEL OF IRAQ'S IN PER CAPITA SHARE OF ENERGY
GLOBAL.

Table No.1.7 Per capita share of world electricity.
State of the
The state of lebanon
The state of qatar
The kingdom of jordan
Republic of iraq
Syrian arab republic
The united arab emirates
State sweden
The kingdom of saudi arabia
United states of america
The state of ukraine
The islamic republic of iran
The state of russia
The state of lebanon

The average per capita consumptionkWh
2000-2004
3476
15075
5890
1180
1809
9855
9895
14934
8022
13395
3550
2635
6431

2005-2009
3499
15755
6292
1343
1715
9389
10018
14030
8161
13246
3662
2649
6486

37

7, 9895, 10%

6, 9855, 10%

8, 14934, 16%

5, 1809, 2%
4, 0, 0%
3, 5890, 6%

9, 8022, 8%
2, 15075, 16%

1, 3476, 4%
1 2 13,
3 6431,
4 7%
5

10, 13395, 14%
6

12,
7 2635,
8 3%
9 11,
103550,
114% 12

13

Figure No.1.10.Diagram is the mass fraction of electricity
per capita in the world.
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

Figure No.1.11 Linear graph compared with the per sizes between the two periods.
Lebanon
Iran
America

Sweden
Syrian
Jordan
Lebanon

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Emirates Sweden

Saudi

12000

Lebanon

Qatar

Jordan

Iraq

Syrian

average per capita consumption kWh
2005 - 2009

3499

15755

6292

1343

1715

9389

10018

14030

8161

average per capita consumption kWh
2000 - 2004

3476

15075

5890

0

1809

9855

9895

14934

8022

14000

America Ukraine

average per capita consumption kWh

2005 - 2009

average per capita consumption kWh

2000 - 2004

16000

18000

Iran

Russia

Lebanon

13246

3662

2649

6486

13395

3550

2635

6431

Figure No.1.12 Schedule vertically compared with the model of the world in per
capita energy.
38

Series2
13395
13246

2635
2649

3550
3662

1809
1715

0

1343

3476
3499

6431
6486

7

8022
8161

9895
10018

6

5890
6292

9855
9389

14934
14030

15075
15755

Series1

1

2

3

4

Series1 3476 15075 5890

5

0

8

9

10

11

12

13

1809 9855 9895 14934 8022 13395 3550 2635 6431

Series2 3499 15755 6292 1343 1715 9389 1001814030 8161 13246 3662 2649 6486

Figure No.1.13.Schedule compared dual model of the world
in per capita energy.
1.3.5.AVAILABLE CAPACITY CURRENT ACTUAL OF PRODUCTION AND
CONSUMPTION.

Table No.1.14.Production of the desired load (MW. Hour) 2013 -201.
Total production rate achieved for
2013 (MW. H)

Add required for 2014
Add required for2014

Add required for 2013

6972000,9599987,
8407014, 7%
10% 8485008,
9%
1019100 8%
7191163,
0, 10%
7%
7189470,
1122699
9501004, 7%
1, 11%
1066198 9671010, 10%
5, 11%
10%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Months

8

9

10

11

Add required for 2014

6972000, 9599987,
8407014, 7%
10%
8485008,
8%
9%
10191000,
7191163,
10%
7%
7189470,
11226991,
7%
11%
9501004,
10661985,
10%
9671010,
11%
10%

6972000,9599987,
8407014, 7%
10% 8485008,
9%7191163,
1019100 8%
0, 10%
7%
7189470,
1122699
9501004, 7%
1, 11%
1066198 9671010, 10%
5, 11%
10%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

February
march
April

8485008
7191163

6468149
5958726

7189470

6325393

9501004
9671010

7821364
7593565

May

10661985

7326605

July

11226991
10191000

7369941
7158279

8407014

5857681

August
September
October

6972000
______

4962547
____

November
December

June

39

Iraq's prosperity will depend on its energy sector. It is estimated to have the
fifthlargest proven oil reserves and the 13th-largest proven gas reserves in the world,
as well as vast potential for further discoveries. These resources can fuel its social and
economic development. Energy is already the cornerstone of Iraq's economy, with oil
exports accounting for 95% of government revenues and equal to over 70% of Gross
domestic product (GDP) in 2011.
The pace of Iraq's rehabilitation depends to a significant degree on the oil sector
how quickly production and exports are increased and how effectively revenues are
managed. Iraq's oil production is now above 3 mb / d and it is the third. largest oil
exporter in the world with an increasing share of exports going to Asia. Even
conservative projections of future oil production imply profound effects on the Iraqi
economy.
A key obstacle to Iraq's development is the lack of reliable electricity supply.
Power stations produce more electricity than ever before, but supply is still insufficient
to meet demand power cuts are a daily occurrence and the use of back-up diesel
generators is widespread. Building amodern electricity system with sufficient
generation capacity and supplies of fuel is recognised as an immediate priority.Oil
makes up more than 80% of Iraq's primary energy mix compared with less than 50%
in the rest of the middle East.
Despite the significant economic advantages of using natural gas instead of
liquid fuels, particularly in electricity generation, almost 60% of gas production in
Iraq was flared in 2011 as the facilities were not in place to gather it. And make it
available for productive uses.
Iraq has ambitious investment plans for its energy sector supported by an
increasing number of international energy companies. In the last five years oil
production and exports have both increased by more than 40% and grid-based
electricity supply around70%.
However progress is still patchy and the state of Iraq's energy (transportation ,
storage and infrastructure export) continues to be serious constraint.

40

12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000

4000000
2000000
0
Add required for 2014

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

9599987 8485008 7191163 7189470 9501004 9671010 106619851122699110191000 8407014 6972000

Total production rate achieved for 2014 (mW. B) 7343771 6468149 5958726 6325393 7821364 7593565 7326605 7369941 7158279 5857681 4962547

Figure No.1.15 Schedule vertical production of the desired load (MW. An hour)
for 2013 -2014.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Total production rate achieved
for 2014 (mW. B)
Add required for 2014
1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Total production rate achieved for 2014 (mW. B) 7343771 6468149 5958726 6325393 7821364 7593565 7326605 7369941 7158279 5857681 4962547
Add required for 2014

9599987 8485008 7191163 7189470 9501004 9671010 10661985 11226991 10191000 8407014 6972000

Figure No.1.16 Graph linear production of desired load (MW. Hour) 2013 - 2014.

1.4. ABSTRACT FIST SECTION.

1.4.1 CONCLUSION FIST SECTION.
1- Executive look at the reality of Iraq by submitting tasks dealing with regional
energy supply, alternative energy sources, the researcher confirms the interest of the
matter in the direction of Iraq and the world that is becoming increasingly important
given the increase in energy prices global warming and the effects of conventional
fossil fuels in general.
2- A prove this study and identification of priority that the task of choosing energy
generation technologies using alternative energy sources is a multi-objective problem
that necessitates the application of the Delphi Method for finding the most appropriate
and effective solutions.

41

3- During the consideration of the researcher and the extrapolation of generating
capacity in Iraq and efficient energy consumption and production as a whole Iraq will
face greater challenges in risk assessment technical energy system using alternative
energy sources is a new and monopolistic industry for several international companies
and small and not fully range study of the problems associated with the functioning of
certain characteristics that carries a variety of other than the most common threats and
the vast majority of experts in Iraq highlights will be the following risks :
1- Credit.
2- Market.
3- A Legality.
4- Organizational.
5- Technical and operational risks.
After Conduct research changes the actual power generation traditional and
alternative energy sources and to develop a model for predicting the future of these
indicators is precisely to determine possible trends that will accelerate the development
of energy sector in Iraq.

1.4.2 RECOMMENDATIONS RESEARCHER TO SECTION.1.
1- In the Republic of Iraq the use of alternative sources of energy has huge
potential for development available. The country is rich in a variety of alternative
energy sources which gives an advantage over some other countries, both in
environmental and economic issues. Given the country's dependence on oil imports the
development of alternative energy sources can provide growth of gross domestic
product as well as energy security and energy independence that decision regulations
that encourage the use of alternative energy sources provide a flow of investment which
will ultimately lead to the development of technology infrastructure as well as provide
a large number of jobs increase economic growth Introduction of technologies of
alternative.
2- The researcher confirms and showing that forecasting energy indices is an
important step in planning the structure of supply regions. The problem of predict
future values of a time series on the basis of its historical values for a long time in the
42

energy sector is the basis for financial planning management and optimization of
energy production and control.
Determined that the appropriate forecasting method must conform to a set of
parameters, such as ease of use low complexity and fast calculations, as well as the
ability to use a limited amount of data (short time series) required for the payment and
long-term prognosis.
Attic lost a lot of time to launch out in order an important strategic energy
technology for Iraq.
3- Independent power production is a good chance the direction of economic
development in the regions, and the researcher note about will provide the context of
effort, time and money to all the activities at the choice of the energy mix of regions
using alternative energy sources more efficient use of the potential of the regions in the
field of alternative energy simplify and speed up the process decision-making regarding
the selection of projects will reduce prevent possible losses for accounting risks.

4 - Concludes the researcher to develop a comprehensive approach to
the choice of the energy mix of regions in Iraq alternative energy sources in
order to maximize the potential of generating capacity and solve the problem
of peak loads in the hot summer.

43

SECTION 2
INDICATORS ENERGY SIMULATION AND PREDICTION.

2.1 MODELLING FOR THE PREDICTION.

Energy consumption and emissions can be predicted via cycle time simulation.
The complexity of existing and future energy sources necessitates the use of a
simulation tool to aid in this work. That represents elements of powertrains found in
energy conventional electric and hybrid rescues . Makes use of the markal simulation
environment. It allows users to quickly and easily develop complex models. These
simulation models can be used to predict a vehicle's performance fuel consumption,
electrical consumption and emissions gas.

2.1.1 PREDICTABILITY IN ACHIEVING THE PRIORITIES SYSTEMS.
1- Forecasting play an important role in the development of energy and economic
2 - Directing strategic public political and as an incentive to the development of
applied and theoretical research.
3 - Long-term prognosis of energy development is relevant for several reasons.
Firstly the long-term prediction.
4 - Is an important tool to enhance energy policy.
5- Effectively directed rapid technological development of new technologies both
traditional and alternative energy as well as permanent.
6- Is an provides long-term prognosis.
8 Stimulates the development of the methodology and techniques of energy,
technological economic research that provides a symbiosis of interdisciplinary
research.
9 - The organization of research on long-term prognosis in energy can provide
effective interaction of business, science, social organizations and public authorities as
well as wider dissemination of the results which ultimately will contribute to a common
vision problems and energy development conditions for effective coordination of local
and general interests.
44

10- Long-term energy forecasting is an effective tool justify the selection of the
most adequate efficient energy policies, which allows to evaluate and compare the
possible outcomes of the alternatives considered.
11 - According to the work processes the prospects for which you want to predict,
can usually be described by time series a sequence of values of certain values obtained
at certain times. Therefore the mandatory elements of the time series are the timestamp
value of the index and a number corresponding to the specified timestamp.

2.1.2. TIME SERIES DATA POTENTIAL FOR RANGE WITH SUSTAINABLE
SOURCES.
Researcher focuses ,Within this research are long-term prospects of Iraq and
energy complex and forecasts indicators years ahead as the most revealing to predict
selected the following indicators.
1- Electric power generation, the underlying energy from the sun's rays, wind and
other alternative energy sources the availability of energy independence in the country
and reduce the use of fossil fuels and increase the environmental safety of the
environment.
2- Generation of hydroelectricity potential is very large so if dual-use generative
use of this energy source as an alternative to fossil fuels is a priority This indicator does
not apply to a group of alternative energy sources due to the fact that the Green tariff
is only available for the energy produced by small hydropower installed capacity of up
to 1864 MW 8% for the moment most of the energy produced large alternative energy
sources.
3 - Generation of electricity from natural gas 60% of the total generating capacity
in Iraq. Namely three types.
- Gas turbines of various types of fuel such as fuel oil, diesel.
- Exhaust gases from the process of refining crude oil.
- Gas turbine traditional way.
4- The cost of electricity for industrial consumers.
Forecasting the price plays a key role in the electricity sector market prices
strongly affect the decision to invest. New generation facilities in the long term All
45

actors should be aware of future market prices for electricity as their profitability
depends on them whether the generating companies large industrial consumers or
investors.

2.1.3 MODELING AND FORECASTING TIME SERIES.
Suppose that the value of the time series available at discrete times.
t = 1, 2 … t.
Then we denote the time series.
Y (t) = Y (1), Y (2)... Y (T).
At time T The necessity to determine process values of Y (t) at time instants
t +1... t + p
t = Time of the forecast, and the value (p) lead time.
To calculate the predicted values of the time series is necessary to determine the
functional relationship between the past and future values of the time series.
Y (t) =F (Y (t−1), Y (t−2), Y (t−3),) +𝜀𝑡 ....................... (2.1)
Equation (2.1) is a forecasting model. Terms problem satisfies such a model, for
which the mean absolute deviation of the true value of the projected aims at a minimum
for a given p.
1

|ε | → min → Min.......................... (2.2)
E = ∑T+P
P t=T+1 t
Expression (2.1) can be written as:
̂ (t)=F (Y (t−1), Y (t−2), Y (t−3)…….……....…….. (2.3)
Y
Y (t) = the predicted values of the time series Y (t).
In addition to determining the predicted values.
Y (T + 1)... Y (T + p)
Necessary to calculate the confidence interval of possible deviations of the values
obtained this in mind, the observations at different time intervals may be interrelated.
This correlation can be determined using the autocorrelation coefficient. To calculate
the autocorrelation coefficient (rk) use the equation 2.4 that takes into account the delay
in the k time between observations

(

yt

,

yt-k ), study of time series data using

autocorrelation analysis for selection of the appropriate method for the prediction of
time series data with one of the most important steps is to consider their relevance to
46

different behaviors in the data set. Consider the main types of data models: horizontal,
trend, seasonal and cyclical. If a single observation range relative to the mean value or
level, then the model of behavior data is horizontal. Decreasing or increasing over a
sufficiently long period of time the data indicate a trend. At the time series is
represented by the generation of Unified Energy System for 2009-2014 years, which
has an increasing trend. Availability data rises and falls which have a fixed period,
indicating that they present a cyclic behavior that represents a relative trend undulation
200
195
190
185
180
175
170
165
160
2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

16492
14782
15471
12709
12197
12343
13498
13206
13267
15047
16093
17839
18443
16360
16636
14467
13772
13646
14275
14627
13721
16639
16336
19078
18353
17356
17663
15163
14114
14004
15071
14829
14325
16711
17911
18372

Figure No.2.1. The line graph of the time series, the production of electricity in
Iraq 2001 – 2010.

T, ГОД, МЕСЯЦ

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 01 11 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 01 11 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 01 11 2
2009

2010

2011

Figure No.2.2. Season schedule power generation
Iraq 2009-2011.
The influence of seasonal factors on the observed data, indicates the presence of
a seasonal pattern of behavior that is characterized by consistently repeated from year
to year, the periodic changes in the data. Process seasonal power consumption has a
component which depends on the ambient temperature. The seasonal component of the
process of power consumption for the year 2009-2011 is shown in Fig. 2.2.
47

Given the above, observations at different time intervals may be interconnected.
This correlation can be determined using.
To calculate the autocorrelation coefficient (rk) using equation 2.4 which takes
into account the delay in the k time between observations (Y t, yt-k).
𝑟𝑘 =

̅
∑𝑛
𝑡=𝑘+1(𝑌𝑡−𝑘 −𝑌)
̅ 2
∑𝑛
𝑡=1(𝑌𝑡 −𝑌)

.............................................. (2.4)

𝑟𝑘 = Autocorrelation coefficient for the delay by k periods.
𝑌̅ = Average value of a number.
𝑌𝑡 = Observation at time t.
𝑌𝑡−𝑘 = k for observation periods earlier.
Autocorrelation coefficient with a lag of one period (r1) is calculated using the
formula is as:
𝑟1 =

̅
̅
∑𝑛
𝑡=1+1(𝑌𝑡 −𝑌)(𝑌𝑡−1 −𝑌)
..............................
̅ 2
∑𝑛
𝑡=1(𝑌𝑡 −𝑌)

(2.5)

Autocorrelation analysis allows us to study the time series, which also include the
trend and seasonality. By using the autocorrelation coefficient values for different time
lags can be determined whether the random time-series data there is a trend, and
seasonal stationary.
If the successive values of the time series are not connected with each other, while
a number of these cases, so the autocorrelation coefficients between 𝑌𝑡 and 𝑌𝑡−к will be
close to zero. If there is a trend value (𝑌𝑡 and 𝑌𝑡−1) have a strong correlation, then the
autocorrelation coefficients are significantly different from zero for the first few
periods of delay and with an increase in the period gradually decrease to zero if the
result of calculations obtained high values of the autocorrelation coefficient for periods
of delay equal to seasonal periods or multiples thereof which means that the series has
a seasonal component.
Consider the number of 𝑦1 , 𝑦2 , … , 𝑦𝑡 , … , 𝑦𝑛 during seasonal τ (τ = 12) for monthly
data (τ = 4) for quarterly (h = n / τ). The essence of the method of evaluation is to
determine the seasonality of the difference between the average for the all eponymous
months (quarters) and the average of all the data.
1


1

𝑛
∑ℎ−1
𝑗 = 0 𝑦𝑡+𝜏 𝑗 − ∑𝑖 =
𝑛

1 𝑦𝑖 ……...................

(2.6)
48

𝑡 = 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 … , 𝑡
For autocorrelation lag corresponding to one period the standard error of 1 / √n
𝑆𝐸 (𝑟𝑘 ) = √

1+2 ∑𝑘−1
𝑖 =
𝑛

2
1 𝑟𝑖

................ ................... (2.7)

𝑆𝐸 (𝑟𝑘 ) = Standard error of the autocorrelation lag
ri = Autocorrelation lag.
k = Delay time.
n = Number of observations in the time series.
A number can be considered random if the calculated autocorrelation coefficients
are within the range (0 ± t SErk) at a certain level of significance analysis of temporal
data graph for power generation for the year and the calculations of correlation
coefficients confirm the presence of a trend and seasonality in a given set of values.
(Yt and Y

t-1

)

2.1.4 THE JUSTIFICATION OF THE CHOICE OF METHODS FORECASTING
ENERGY INDICATORS.
Can be used the following methods:
A – Regression analysis method for solving many problems in forecasting,
requiring study the relationship between two or more variables. The purpose of this
analysis is to determine the relationship between the original variables and the set of
external covariates To determine the regression coefficients.
B – The method of least squares.
C – The maximum likelihood method.
1- Linear regression model.
The essence of the model lies in the fact that there is a linear relationship
between the considered process Z (t) and discrete external factor X (t)
which has an impact on his influence. Predictive model based on a linear
regression equation can be represented.
Z(t) = α0 + α1 X(t) + εt………………….……..(2.8)
𝛼0 , 𝛼1 = regression coefficients.
𝜀𝑡 = error model.
Starting from (2.8) predictive value Z (t) at time t can be calculated if the value
49

X (t) at the same time t. It is virtually impossible at forecasting in real conditions.
2- Multiple regression model.
Provided that when the process of Z (t) is influenced by a plurality of
discrete external factors X1(t), XS (t), represents the model prediction
equation.
Z (t) =𝛼0 + 𝛼1𝑋1 (𝑡) + 𝛼2𝑋2 (𝑡) + ⋯ + 𝛼𝑠 𝑋𝑠 (𝑡)𝜀𝑡 ........... (2.9)
As for a linear regression model, calculating a prerequisite predictive values Z (t)
is the availability of future values of all the factors X1 (t). XS (t). which is almost
impossible in practice.
3-Non-linear regression model.
The essence of the model is that there is a function that describes the relationship
between the external factor X (t) and the initial process Z (t):
Z (t) = F (X (t), A)........................................ (2.10)
To construct a predictive model is necessary to determine parameters of the
function A. As in the previous cases, this model is not effective in a long-term energy
forecasting, as an external factor X (t) is not known in advance, so the process Z (t)
cannot be predicted.
4- Model group account of arguments.
Developed has the form.
𝑠

𝑠

𝑠

𝑍(𝑡) = 𝛼0 + ∑ 𝛼𝑖 𝑋𝑖 (𝑡) + ∑ ∑ 𝛼𝑖,𝑗 𝑋𝑖 (𝑡)𝑋𝑗 (𝑡) +
𝑖=1
𝑖=1 𝑗=1
𝑠
𝑠
𝑠
+ ∑𝑖=1 ∑𝑗=1 ∑𝑘=1 𝛼𝑖,𝑗,𝑘 𝑋𝑖 (𝑡)𝑋𝑗 (𝑡)𝑋𝑘 (𝑡)

+ ...……………... (2.11)

𝑋 = {𝑋𝑖 | 𝑖 = 1, … , 𝑠} = set of free variables.
a = a parameter vector of weighting coefficients
=〈

𝑎𝑖 , 𝑎𝑖𝑗 , 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑘 〉

𝑖, 𝑗, 𝑘, … = 1,2,3 … , 𝑠
Using a support function (2.11) build models of various options for some or all
of the arguments. Among the several advantages of these models include the uniformity
of their analysis and design, simulation transparency accessibility for the analysis of

50


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