ELECTRIC MOBILITY: TECHNOLOGY
The power-packed economics of EV batteries
Electric vehicle (EV) battery prices should fall from USD290/kWh in 2015 to USD97/kWh by 2020
driven by chemistry upgrades and economies of scale. Panasonic batteries (for Tesla) are the
cheapest per kWh at present, but the gap could narrow as LG Chem and SDI introduce higher energy
batteries at reduced costs.
Sub-USD100/kWh batteries would make EVs more competitive vs internal combustion engine (ICE)
vehicles, even without government subsidies. This would enable accelerated growth and an S-shaped
auto market penetration curve. Electric buses are already competitive vs conventional, diesel ones.
Beyond battery, plug-in and hybrid EVs (BEV, PHEV & HEV), we also see a large growth opportunity
for micro/mild hybrids as ICE carmakers target improved fuel efficiency and reduced emissions via low
voltage systems (48V). We expect a fast transition to car electrification through a variety of formats. .
Peter Yu, CFA
+822 2125 0535
Yong Liang Por
+852 2825 1877
+813 6377 2240
Our research is available on Thomson One, Bloomberg, TheMarkets.com, Factset and on http://eqresearch.bnpparibas.com/index. Please contact your salesperson for authorisation.
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PREPARED AND PUBLISHED BY NON-US BROKER-DEALER(S): BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES KOREA CO LTD, BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES (ASIA) LTD,
BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES (JAPAN) LTD THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR U.S. DISTRIBUTION. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT
DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND AT APPENDIX ON PAGE 50
17 NOVEMBER 2015