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ELECTRIC MOBILITY: TECHNOLOGY

Peter Yu, CFA

We do not believe diesel cars will disappear altogether. Instead, traditional ICE cars
are likely to introduce low-voltage-battery systems, such as 12V and 48V, for micro
and mild HEV to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions by start-stop +
regenerative brake features. On top of high specific power, the low voltage battery
has the additional requirement of very fast charge and discharge performance.
We expect xEV battery makers to benefit from the accelerating shift to electrified
propulsion in vehicles. Among EV battery makers in our coverage, we believe
Samsung SDI is most leveraged to EV battery growth, as we expect its EV/ESS
(electric vehicle/energy storage system) battery segment to reach 29% of SDI’s total
sales by 4Q16, whereas the EV battery sales portion is much smaller at LG Chem
(3.6% in 2015E and 5% in 2016E) and Panasonic. As for LG Chem, as chemical
margins are on a weakening trend, we believe that news flow on EV batteries (order
wins, etc) is likely to be a key share price driver.
We expect Nidec to benefit from potential rapid penetration of 48V system. In 48V
mild HEVs, the main drive motor and auxiliary components like water pumps,
superchargers, and electronic power steering (EPS) use 48V power. Nidec is a major
supplier of EPS and has acquired GPM, which makes water pumps, and Elesys,
which makes auxiliary component electronic control units (ECU). We think an
industry switch to 48V systems would be a positive for Nidec

Exhibit 1: Specific energy projections of SDI, LG Chem, and
Panasonic battery
(Wh/kg)

LGC

SDI

Exhibit 2: Energy density projections of SDI, LG Chem, and
Panasonic battery
(Wh/L)

Panasonic

LGC

SDI

Panasonic

900

350

800

300

700
250

600

200

500

150

400
300

100

200
50

100

0

0
2014

2015

2016E

2018E

2020E

2014

2015

2016E

2018E

Sources: SDI; LG Chem; Panasonic; BNP Paribas estimates

Sources: SDI; LG Chem; Panasonic; BNP Paribas estimates

Exhibit 3: Price per kWh projections of SDI, LG Chem, and
Panasonic battery

Exhibit 4: MSRP projection of EV (200 mile AER)

(USD/kWh)

LGC

SDI

Panasonic

350
(USD)
300

Selling cost
Production others
Manufacturing cost (battery)

2020E

Administration and profit
Manufacturing cost (others)

50,000

250

40,000

200
30,000
150
20,000
100
10,000

50

0

0
2015

2016E

2018E

Sources: SDI; LG Chem; Panasonic; BNP Paribas estimates

6

2014

2020E

2016E

2018E

2020E

2023E

Sources: Argonne National Laboratory; BNP Paribas estimates

BNP PARIBAS

17 NOVEMBER 2015