Entangled structures of the world cereal trade network .pdf

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Entangled structures of the world cereal trade network
Marie-Cécile Dupas1, Petros Chatzimpiros1, José Halloy1
1. Université Paris Diderot, Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de
Demain (Paris Interdisciplinary Energy Institute)

For food supply, the development of massive international
agricultural trade networks is a turning point in history, as
it has changed the food system into a highly
interconnected global system. The trading network growth
is built on a dependency trajectory constrained by the use
of fossil fuels and fertilizers and geopolitical policies. Food
security worldwide and of urban population which is more
than half of today world population, increasingly relies on
global network supply fidelity. We identify difficulties
because of the heterogeneous features and the dynamical
changes occurring. We study the evolution of the cereals
world trade networks based on the temporal analysis of
the node connections. We divide the network according to
the durations of the flows to assess the robustness of
several topologies of the trades.

Decomposition in subnetworks according to trades duration

World cereal network of the 60 most important
countries and their trades in 2013

The distribution shows an heterogeneity in trades activity. Most of
trades are transient as they appear once. On the studied period, 16000
trades have a trade duration of 1 year but they only transport 1% of
the total traded volume. They compose the most dynamical
subnetwork which we called the transient network. By contrast, the
backbone network is composed by trades which last during the entire
period of 28 years and they trade 70% of the volume. The other trades
compose an intermediate network which present different properties
of emerging stable trading links.

Backbone network

Scale-free network properties imply:
• Powerlaw degree distribution
• Preferential attachment processus
• Dissasortative network
• Presence of hubs

Intermediate network

• Exponential degree distribution
• Two mechanisms of growth: growing and
adjacent random attachment
• Decreasing the role of hubs in the global

Transient network

Dynamical network
Exponential degree distribution
“commercial noise”
80% intercontinental trades

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