EPFM 17 .pdf

5TH ANNUAL

ELECTRICITY
PRICE MODELLING
AND FORECASTING FORUM
14th – 15th December 2017 — Berlin, Germany

VENUE

FEATURED
ƒƒ How to best tackle the issue of increasing price volatility in 2018
ƒƒ How to account for changing demand forecasting based
on changing consumer needs
ƒƒ How to account for new technologies and trends for the long-term

SPEAKER PANEL
Matthew Wittenstein
Senior Electricity
Analyst
IEA

Bayram Kaddour
Project Manager
EDF R&D
EDF

Brent Wanner
Senior Energy
Analyst
IEA

Erkan Kalayci
Power Portfolio
and Operations
Manager
EWE Turkey

Ralph Renner
Head of European
Origination
Sompo Global
Weather
Marten Tiddens
General Manager
Powerline

Claus Huber
Senior Economist
Head of Long
Term Modelling
and Forecasting
Axpo

Iain Staffell
Lecturer in
Sustainable Energy
Imperial College
London

Andre Estermann
Project leader
Common Grid Model
Alignment
ENTSO-E

Claudio Dicembrino
Head of
Macroeconomic
and Energy Analysis
and Forecasting
Enel Group

Axel Bredenstein
Lead Analyst
Value Forecasting
and Optimisation
Vattenfall Energy
Trading

Gilles Etienne
Product Manager
- EU Market
Integration
Elia

Petr Jonas
Strategy Analyst
CEZ

DAY ONE

14th December 2017
08.30

Registration & morning coffee

09.00

Opening address from the Chair
Matthew Wittenstein

09.15

World Energy Outlook 2017 – global trends and key
messages for Europe
ƒƒ World Energy Outlook 2017 – global trends and key
messages for Europe
ƒƒ The evolving electricity sector – lessons from
the IEA’s digitalisation report
ƒƒ The EU Clean Energy Package and the importance
of regional integration
ƒƒ The potential impact of electrification (e-mobility
and other end uses)
Matthew Wittenstein
Senior Electricity
Analyst
IEA

10.15

14.00

Petr Jonas
Strategy Analyst
CEZ
14.45

Brent Wanner
Senior Energy
Analyst
IEA

Dilemma and challenges of market modelling
in tariff-dominated power markets
ƒƒ Dilemma and challenges for market modelling
ƒƒ Challenges for portfolio management
& sourcing activities
ƒƒ Composition and management of risk premia
ƒƒ Turkey case
ƒƒ Importance of new retail & trading products

Coffee & networking break

11.30

Trends in Weather Options
ƒƒ Wind options:
ƒƒ Exchange traded futures
ƒƒ OTC options and quantos
ƒƒ Application in asset optimisation
ƒƒ Temperature Hedges:
ƒƒ Traditional HDD contracts
ƒƒ Sigmoid temperature and quanto options
ƒƒ Q&A on weather hedging

Flow Based Market Coupling Implementation
and Impact
ƒƒ A focus on steps from calculation to allocation
ƒƒ The impact on market indicators since Flow Based
go-live in CWE
ƒƒ Status and next steps (developments ongoing
in CWE and Core)
Gilles Etienne
Product Manager - EU Market Integration
Elia

15.30

Tea & networking break

16.00

All TSOs’ Common Grid Model Alignmen
ƒƒ Background
ƒƒ Business processes
ƒƒ Key performance and quality indicators

Erkan Kalayci
Power Portfolio and Operations Manager
EWE Turkey
11.00

Forecasting challenges of investments
in renewables
ƒƒ Comparison of subsidy based on German
and Polish RES Act
ƒƒ Revenues from wholesale market after
the end of subsidy period

Andre Estermann
Project leader Common Grid Model Alignment
ENTSO-E
PANEL DISCUSSION
16.45 Split German-Austrian Price Zone
ƒƒ Opposing perspectives
ƒƒ Mitigating risks
Andre Estermann
Project leader
Common Grid Model
Alignment
ENTSO-E

Petr Jonas
Strategy Analyst
CEZ

Gilles Etienne
Product Manager - EU
Market Integration
Elia

Ralph Renner
Head of European Origination
Sompo Global Weather

Panel led by
12.15

Developments in Energy Storage
ƒƒ Current and future developments in storage cost
ƒƒ Storage and power market price mechanism
ƒƒ What markets might storage disrupt and when
ƒƒ Lessons from long-term modelling

Matthew Wittenstein
Senior Electricity Analyst
IEA
17.30

End of Day One - Closing word from the Chairman

Iain Staffell
Lecturer in Sustainable Energy
Imperial College London
13.00

Lunch & networking break

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DAY TWO

15th December 2017
08.45

Morning coffee

12.00

09.00

Changing Mix, Changing Technology
and Electricity Demand Forecasting Models
ƒƒ Enel Group presentation: geographical locations
and industrial growth
ƒƒ The group in a low carbon world
ƒƒ The role of Sustainability within the growth Group
strategy
ƒƒ Newly released Italian Energy Strategy 2017: main
concepts and pillars
ƒƒ How Enel Group deals with electricity demand
forecasting models used in each country where Enel
is located

Marten Tiddens
General Manager
Powerline
12.45

Lunch & networking break

13.45

Intraday – Trading flexibility at increasing speed
ƒƒ Recent developments in the intraday market
ƒƒ Assessing risk and opportunities
ƒƒ Flexibility demand and provision: example
of marketing wind and pumped storages
ƒƒ Automatic trading

Claudio Dicembrino
Head of Macroeconomic and Energy
Analysis and Forecasting
Enel Group
09.45

Long-term Forecasting and Investment Decisions
ƒƒ What does long-term energy modelling mean?
ƒƒ Short-term versus long-term energy modelling
ƒƒ Requirements for long-term analysis
ƒƒ Investing and divesting issues

Axel Bredenstein
Lead Analyst
Value Forecasting and Optimisation
Vattenfall Energy Trading
14.30

Claus Huber
Senior Economist
Head of Long Term Modelling and Forecasting
Axpo
10.30

Wind power forecasting/ Volume predictions
- Impact on Investments
ƒƒ Volatility of Wind
ƒƒ Purpose of wind power modelling
ƒƒ Modelling of weather volatility and impact
on energy markets

Online Learning for Energy Markets
ƒƒ Application in electricity load forecast
for EDF portfolio
ƒƒ Automatic adaptive algorithms
and probabilistic forecast
ƒƒ IT integration as online service

Coffee & networking break

PANEL DISCUSSION
11.00 Impact of CO2 Prices on Electricity Price
ƒƒ Updates and current situation
ƒƒ Regulation cost
Impact of Distributed Generation on Wholesale
Electricity Prices
ƒƒ Opportunities and limits
ƒƒ Leveraging power flexibility
ƒƒ Lessons learned
ƒƒ Exploring the Implementation of TOU rates
and Flexible Demand Opportunities
Claus Huber
Senior Economist,
Head of Long Term
Modelling and
Forecasting
Axpo
Axel Bredenstein
Lead Analyst Value
Forecasting and
Optimisation
Vattenfall Energy
Trading

Bayram Kaddour
Project Manager EDF R&D
EDF
15.15

Coffee & networking break

INTERACTIVE DEBRIEF SESSION
15.45 Debrief Session
ƒƒ Major takeaways
ƒƒ Summary
16.30


Closing word from the Chairman
& close of conference

Iain Staffell
Lecturer in Sustainable
Energy
Imperial College
London
Brent Wanner
Senior Energy Analyst
IEA
Bayram Kaddour
Project Manager EDF
R&D
EDF

Panel Led by
Claudio Dicembrino
Head of Macroeconomic
and Energy Analysis and Forecasting
Enel Group

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