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Table 3. Results of COVID-19 epidemic by various models (in 2020)

Inflection point
Model

Predicted cumulative number of

Predicted date when the cumulative number

confirmed cases

of confirmed cases reach the maximum

NonChina

Wuhan

Hubei

China

Wuhan

areas
9

2

February

February

9

2

February

February

9

2

February

February

23February

/

/

AI Dynamic Model 24

16February

/

/

SEIR infection model 25

1February

/

/

/

/
/

Logistic model

6 February

Gompertz model

6 February

Bertalanffy model

6 February

SEIR model23

HiddenMarkov model and
MCMC method 26
SEIR model based on
27

System dynamics

Before
February 9

Non-Hubei
areas

China

Wuhan

Non-Hubei
areas

Death toll
NonChina

Wuhan

Hubei
areas

80261

49852

12972

26 March

27 March

8 March

3150

2502

107

83656

56258

13328

22April

24April

23 March

4688

3985

125

85140

57447

13405

27 April

27 April

24March

6286

5108

125

/

/

/

/

2279-3318

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

7000

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

9 February

/

/

/

/

5586984520
4200060000

19
February
12-19
February


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