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We modify the
traditional SIR model of disease spread by incorporating infectious recovery dynamics such that contact
between a recovered and infected member of the population is required for recovery.
Typically, the infected host can suffer
high fevers, severe anemia, hemoglobinuria caused by
intravascular hemolysis considerably in excess of that
correlated with parasitemia, lethargy, inappetance, and
sometimes hydrophobia .
Guide for Residents of Tropical Areas
where Malaria is Prevalent
And more precisely, in its most
dangerous form :
« PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM »
In Memory of Aymeric Girard
Who died on May 10th, 2010 in Dakar
From Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria.
He was only 7 years old.
Who is this guide aimed at ?
This guide is aimed at anybody who has made the choice to travel for a few months, or
years, to tropical or sub tropical areas.
It has been written with the help of Doctor Strady, a doctor in the Infectious and
Tropical Diseases Department of the Reims Hospital in France. I would like to thank him
for his availability and his humanity.
Let’s stop burying our heads in the sand ! Every year, 350 ‐ 500 million people are
infected and more than 1 million die from malaria. In France alone, there are between
6500 and 7000 cases of imported malaria. Some cases are fatal.
Malaria is an illness caught through the transmission of a parasite by a mosquito. Only
the female mosquito bites as she needs certain elements contained in blood to produce
eggs. She only bites between sunset and daybreak.
Before leaving on your trip, like many travellers, you will go and see your doctor, nurse
or pharmacist or go to a travel clinic to check if there is malaria in the country you are
travelling to. You will have the necessary vaccinations and you will be given advice
regarding any health risks.
With malaria, there is no vaccine. You may be given advice on how to prevent malaria.
You may be advised not to take anti‐malarial tablets for a long length of time due to the
side effects of these drugs. Some doctors may advise you to take the drugs for a few
months but then to stop. Others may suggest you take the drugs during and after the
rainy season. Others may even advise you take nothing. Among all this conflicting advice,
you need to make a decision for the well being of your family.
There is official advice through the National Travel Health Network
The French Health Ministry recently published the following advice for long stays in
«To prevent malaria it is necessary to arm patients with indepth information
and in written format. We must insist on protection from mosquito bites (mosquito
nets, insect repellent, etc…).From the 1st trip, a course of Chemoprophylaxis
(malaria tablets) adapted to the level of resistance, should be followed for at least
the first 6 months. Past 6 months, and knowing that taking antimalarials for
several years is unrealistic, the chemoprophylaxis course can be adapted by local
doctors. Intermittent courses of the antimalarials should be considered during the
rainy season or when visiting rural areas. It is indispensable that if a fever should
manifest itself, the patient should see a doctor straightaway. Patients should be
aware that the risks of malaria persist even on their return to an uninfected area,
particularly during the first two months. »
The prophylaxis is not a guarantee against infection, but it increases the body’s
resistance to malaria and in some ways prepares the body to fight against the disease.
If you go to risky areas with a baby or small child, closely follow the prescription for
anti‐malarial syrup that your paediatrician will prescribe.
Anybody can get infected. Nobody is safe.
After a while we start to fall into bad habits, we forget to protect ourselves and this is
when the risk is at its highest.
Contrary to other guides covering the same subject, this one is going to start the other
Most existing guides start by giving advice as to preventative measures. These measures
are necessary but you must remember that these are not 100% effective. Certain
prospectuses provide a description of the most frequent symptoms. You will sometimes
find information on « Plasmodium Falciparum » which is the most dangerous and deadly
form of malaria. Whatever the symptoms, as soon as there is even the slightest
temperature, you must consider malaria.
But before talking about preventative measures or disease symptoms, this guide will
start by providing advice to families returning to Europe on holiday, with or without
children; and to grandparents or other relatives who look after children visiting from
This guide will then provide advice for friends and relatives who may decide to come to
visit you in infected regions, before addressing preventative measures and common
symptoms of malaria.
ADVICE TO RESIDENTS
According to the current trend, based on the three models, the total
number of people expected to be infected is 49852-57447 in Wuhan,12972-13405 in non-Hubei areas
and 80261-85140 in China respectively.
– # of daily new cases
– Total 'active' infected patients (excludes people infected and, either quarantined, recovered or dead)
• Where needed, we have leveraged this fact base to put a draft estimate of timing for the start of a potential lockdown, the estimated
peak of infections, and the end of a potential lockdown (short and long), leveraging:
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